Worsened by climate change, Morocco’s 7-year drought threatens food stability

It’s all dust and stones in the pasturelands of Settat, an hour inland from Casablanca, which sits on Morocco’s Atlantic coast. 

For grazing sheep there, there’s nothing even to nibble on.

A shepherd, who only gave his first name, Mohamed, said his animals are dying due to the lack of rain. Mohamed tends to about 30 sheep out on this dry, brown plain. He said that before this drought started, he had 115.

“To keep my remaining animals alive, I have to sell one to buy fodder for the rest,” he said, adding, “One day, I will end up with none.”

The Settat region has historically been one of Morocco’s greenest and most fertile. The region, known as the country’s wheat belt, is dotted with small subsistence farms. 

But the farms there have been hit hard by a punishing drought that is now entering its seventh year across much of North Africa. As livestock is dying, wheat yields, on which Moroccans depend for bread, have fallen by 50%. 

Reservoirs that supply cities with drinking water are perilously low. Scientists say changes in ocean currents suggest that climate change is pushing moisture even further away, into Europe. 

A local farmer named Hassan, who also only wanted to give his first name, expressed worry over the state of his wheat crops.

“Over these last several years, our crops have failed. We’re off by 50% because of the drought. And we don’t get any aid from the government,” he said.

Hassan said his family isn’t going hungry yet. But he can no longer pay for his kids’ school books and supplies.

“Our only hope is to get some financial support so we can dig a deeper well,” he said. “The one we have is nearly dry.”

Hassan doesn’t even mention the other obvious hope: that some clouds appear, bringing rain. He’s not optimistic. Nor are climate change experts.

Abdelghani Chehbouni is a climate scientist at the Mohammed VI Polytechnic University in the Moroccan city of Benguerir.  

Chehbouni has been studying climate change in Morocco for 40 years. He said that detailed satellite imagery over the last two decades shows steadily decreasing snowfall and rain across North Africa. The region is getting drier, he said, because climate change has altered ocean currents.

“The precipitation in North Africa is basically due to moisture coming from the mid-latitude Atlantic Ocean. We have seen great change, both in terms of the pattern of sea surface temperature, of the wind and of cloud formation,” he explained.

Normally, that Atlantic moisture produces rain when it collides with the dry air over Morocco. But that collision point has been drifting northward, making parts of Europe wetter while leaving North Africa drier.

Mohamed Jalil is the former head of Morocco’s National Meteorological Service. He’s now a climate change consultant in Casablanca. 

He said that the northward drift of rainfall is the result of rising average air temperatures, which are pushed higher by rising carbon emissions. Basically, as it gets hotter on average, the less likely it is that the rains will return to their normal rate.

The United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said that climate change has already contributed to a 15% to 20% drop in rain in the region. According to Jalil, IPCC modeling predicts more protracted dry spells, but also more extreme, erratic weather.

“Maybe we will have some heavy rains, yes, but in the cumulative amount in one year … we will decrease in precipitation,” he said.

Jalil said that this helps explain record storms this summer in the Sahara Desert, which destroyed homes and flooded streets in the normally bone-dry town of Ouarzazate in central Morocco. The flash floods, the first in decades, killed at least 18 people.

And most of that water was lost to the sand. In farm country, as the drought drags on without replenishing rains, reservoirs and underground aquifers are running dry, too.

At a farm north of the coastal city of Kenitra, farmer Jamel Kraimi poured tea for visitors. He said that he’s decided to park his plow for good.

“This year alone, I dug eight wells but only hit water once. I lost more than $45,000,” he lamented. “I see myself losing money every year, so I’m going to get out of farming.”

At the small farm in Settat, farmer Hassan’s brother, Kablee, said that with their well all but dry, he’s also on the verge of packing it in and moving to the city.

That’s a scenario the Moroccan government wants to avoid at all costs. Its crowded cities are suffering from the same drought. Taking in lots of internally displaced climate migrants would put a daunting strain on limited water supplies there. But farmers are still left with few other options.

“If we can’t find money to dig deeper, and no rain falls, we will definitely move to the city,” Kablee said. “We’ll have no other choice.”