Does US withdrawal leave Syria open to Russia?

Yury Barmin: According to the statements coming from the Kremlin they were talking about the Turkish operation in the northeast of Syria. Vladimir Putin sort of greenlighted this operation, but he asked the Turkish president to be very careful so as not to derail the political process that is ongoing, setting up the constitutional committee.

The main red line, of course, for everyone, is Syrian sovereignty. Syria should remain a united country. Of course, there are fears that this Turkish operation could grow into a buffer zone at the Turkish-Syrian border. The Syrian government is fully against these operations, as well as the Iranians, while the Russians are trying to be a little more flexible.

The Syrian constitutional committee is a body that is being formed under the United Nations. It’s a body of 150 Syrians representing the opposition, the government, as well as civil society. From two years back, I think the Syrian constitutional committee has been closely linked to the Astana process — the process that is led by Russia, Iran and Turkey. And I think the fear here is that if the Turkish operation goes too far, the Iranians will not be interested in working with the Turks within the Astana form, so this is one of the red lines out there.

I think the main goal for Russia is not really in the northeast. The main goal for Russia is in Damascus, and the main goal is to legitimize the Syrian government, legitimize Bashar al-Assad. Russia generally has been trying to set up the talks between Damascus and the Kurds. This process has been ongoing for a year, but it really didn’t lead to anything. Now I think Russians seek more rapprochement between the Turks and the Syrian government. There are very many conflicting interests in Syria, and Russia needs to balance between them.

So I think to an extent Russians are hedging in the northeast at the moment. They want to see who is going to be the first party that will reconcile with the Syrian government, basically.

Sergey Lavrov, the foreign minister, did receive some messages from the Kurds apparently indicating that they are ready for talks with Damascus. But we’ve heard these statements for a very long time, including in January 2019 when Americans withdrew from Manbij. So there is a lot of suspicion that this is being used by the Kurds as leverage against the Americans. So, yes, they are in constant contact with the Kurds. But unfortunately, so far, these contacts have not led to any rapprochement.

Well, look, first of all, Turkey didn’t give any promises to the Russians. According to the plan that the Turkish president presented to the UN General Assembly, Turkey’s goal is setting up a buffer zone in the Northeast. I don’t think this is something that Russia would be happy with because that automatically means that Turks do not really need the Astana process that is led by Russia. I think Russians still see Turkey’s operations in the context of the Adana agreement that was signed in the ’90s between the Syrian government and the Turkish government. That agreement stipulates that Turks have the right to conduct limited targeted operations in Syria and I think this is exactly what Russians expect from the Turks.

Yes, but in a different way, I think. It just wants the government to come back. This has been their goal from the get-go. I don’t think Russians have a genuine interest to manage this Syrian territory or to deal with every single problem. Russians just want a centralized government to come back. In terms of filling the void, it’s very hard to imagine that the Russians will be able to do that in the northeast, specifically in the areas closer to the Turkish border, because these areas are still self-governed — actually well-governed. There are NGOs, there are a local administration councils. So I don’t really think that Kurds expect Russians to fill that void.

Well, I think that’s exactly that. I mean, if Turkey goes too far, obviously Russians will have to react somehow, and there are ways Russians could pull the plug by, for example, closing the airspace like they did before. But until Turkey really goes too far and sort of sets up its own administrations there, sets up observation posts — I don’t think Russians will intervene in any way.