Surge strategy briefing

The surge is winding down now and depending on who you talk to, the effort has either been a success or a waste of efforts and money. As just a snapshot, says this expert, the surge seems successful, but as part of a larger picture that assessment is more complex and difficult. Going by his definition, this retired Army Lieutenant Colonel says the progress has been solid but still imperfect, maintaining that Iraq is irrefutably better off than it was before the surge. He adds that luck matters a lot in war and the US has had some luck, especially with Sunnis aligning themselves more with the occupation forces lately, for example. This analyst says of major developments in the past year, only one can be linked directly to the troop surge tactic, the Sadr ceasefire, and he sees that as not particularly encouraging. He says it’s likely Sadr has even increased his strength during the ceasefire. That said, there were reports today that Sadr offered to disband his militia if the highest Shia authority demands it. whatever the next plan is, this analyst says it will require a rethinking of Iraq strategy.