Baltics and NATO allies learn from war in Ukraine

In Russia’s northwest military district last week, Russian soldiers prepared for war.

A video by Russia’s Defense Ministry shows infantry troops shooting from machine guns. They displayed their combat readiness, simulating a battlefield assault.

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov is shown overseeing the exercise, nodding with approval.

The training involved everything from tank maneuvers to practicing the use of drones — all meant to mimic fighting conditions in Ukraine.

Countries bordering Russia are wary of this kind of activity.

“What people need to understand is that our house is on fire in Europe, the war in Ukraine is existential; thus, for us in Europe, putting this fire out is our priority, number one, number two, and number three, we’ll do anything necessary,” said Jonatan Vseviov, secretary general of Estonia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum earlier this month.

Vseviov noted that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine is a threat to European security.

Countries like Estonia are worried that, in the future, the Kremlin’s appetite for war may not be limited to Ukraine. Therefore, countries along NATO’s eastern flank are beefing up their defenses.

In January, the Baltic states signed an agreement to establish a defense line to bolster NATO’s eastern border. In practice, that means increased fencing, more bunkers and other fortifications. This is one of many lessons learned from how Russia fights in Ukraine.

“Ukraine is fighting a war that no one has fought,” said Kristine Berzina, managing director for “Geostrategy North” at the German Marshall Fund. “It is teaching all of NATO militaries what a future conflict could look like and how to fight it.”

“What’s interesting here is the mix of 21st century technology — so this is electronic warfare, the use of drones, the need for satellites, Starlink — in addition to essentially 19th century approaches and early 20th century World War I era trench warfare,” she said.

Essentially, Berzina said, at this point, you cannot replace old-school warfare with new technology.

“There was an assumption, I think, in many sophisticated militaries, that new technologies, new generations of fighter jets, new generations of weaponry, [are] going to make [the] old system obsolete,” she said.

But that has not been the case. 

Simple artillery has played a vital role in the war, and its ability to produce large quantities is now a priority. Russia has been tapping into its vast Soviet stockpiles of artillery.

Berzina said that NATO countries are now increasing military production.

“I think the key takeaway is that quantity still matters,” said Andris Banka, who studies Baltic security issues and NATO at the University of Greifswald in Germany.

“You need actual military muscle,” he said. “Russian military offensive has demonstrated that the number of troops, even if they are badly equipped, still matters a great deal.”

Banka explained that in the event of an invasion of the Baltics, NATO’s strategy was to send reinforcements that would retake territory. Banka said that thinking has now changed. 

“Ukrainians have shown how important the first 24 to 48 hours — I think they were absolutely crucial in Ukraine being able to stand,” he said. “… and I think this is the key takeaway that you need to resist from the first moments. You cannot just wait for someone to arrive.”

Banka said that other aspects of Baltic defense policy have shifted.

Last year, Latvia made military conscription mandatory for men. Bolstering border security, and  procuring missile defense systems, is a priority.

Now, NATO has more troops rotating through the Baltic countries.

The United States, as one of the leading members of the alliance, is also paying close attention to developments in Ukraine.

“At the end of a conflict in Ukraine, however, it concludes, we are going to have a very big Russia problem,” said General Christopher Cavoli, head of US-European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum.

“We are going to have a situation where Russia is reconstituting its force, is located on the borders of NATO, is led by largely the same people as it is right now, is convinced that we are the adversary and is very, very angry.”

Cavoli said that to deter further Russian aggression, NATO allies must learn from Ukraine. 

And he said that the “chronic threat of Russia” will remain among NATO’s top priorities.