West remains divided on sanctions, weapons to Ukraine, former amb to Russia says

Amb. Michael McFaul: No, I don’t think so at all. I don’t think it changes the actual substance of the war, tragically. Maybe he shouldn’t have said it or not. We can debate that. But he said, I think, what millions around the world — hundreds of millions — around the world believe, that actually millions of Russians also believe. He didn’t call for regime change. He said Mr. Putin shouldn’t be in power, but that won’t change if there’s ever, in a moment for negotiations, to negotiate with Mr. Putin and ultimately remember that negotiation will be between Putin and [Ukrainian President Volodomyr] Zelenskiy. Not Putin and Biden. 

You know, wars end in two ways, generally: Either one side wins, or there’s a stalemate on the battlefield. Right now, neither of those two conditions are true. Mr. Putin, for all of the troubles he’s had and for all of the heroic fighting that the Ukrainian soldiers have done, is still making advances. And therefore, the West, in order to help diplomacy, needs to help President Zelenskiy produce stalemate on the battlefield. 

Well, Ukraine’s already divided before this war. Remember, Crimea was annexed, Donbas was defacto already under control of Russia. What I do see in the military strategy is Mr. Putin trying to unite Crimea with Donbas, in particular, you know, the battle for Mariupol, which you know, one of Zelenskiy’s aides called their “Stalingrad,” is where he’s focused his forces right now, because he wants to divide Ukraine before he sits down at the negotiating table. And I fear Mariupol will fall, and I fear that will put them in a stronger position when they finally seek to negotiate. But let’s be clear, President Zelenskiy has made it crystal clear he’s willing to talk about almost everything — including neutrality for Ukraine — but he is not willing to talk about changing of borders through the use of force. That is going to be a big sticking point if they ever get to a point where Zelenskiy and Putin sit down face-to-face to try to end this war. 

Absolutely. That’s exactly the way he feels. Every day that they lose ground makes it harder to negotiate terms of peace that are acceptable to the Ukrainian people. And that’s why every day he asks for more weapons and more sanctions from the West. 

Well, with respect to sanctions? More sanctions every week. It’s not enough to sustain sanctions, as some people say. It is my view, and it’s President Zelenskiy’s view, that there should be more sanctions every, every single week, including a focus right now on trying to put new sanctions on oil and gas exports to Europe. And then second, more weapons. President Zelenskiy said that, that they need more weapons: they need airplanes, they need tanks, they need anti-aircraft weapons, surface-to-air missiles. They’re fighting a formidable army and they have fought heroically. But now they need more supplies to continue that fight. 

Well, with respect to sanctions, there’s a divide within the West. You know, Germany, for one, does not want to cut off its energy imports from Russia. They think it’ll hurt their economy and they’re right about that, by the way. I think that’s a legitimate concern. With respect to weapons, different countries have different views of that, including the United States. As we learned of the United States did not want to send the MiG 29s, the aircraft fighter jets that Poland allegedly was ready to give to Ukraine, and President Zelenskiy expressed his frustration over that.

I think we should listen to President Zelenskiy when he says what he needs and not second guess him, not believe that we know what are in his military interest better than him. And if I were working in the Biden administration, yes, I would be leaning in to try to give him the weapons that he needs to stop Putin’s advancing army, because if he doesn’t stop the Russian army from advancing, there will not be the conditions for a peaceful settlement. 

Well, a lot. Yes and no. In the long run, of course, Ukraine matters to Russia more than it does to Americans. It’s on their border, it will be, they have a long history. And by the way, that long history is one that both Presidents Zelenskiy and Mr. Putin have acknowledged. They just talk about it in very different terms. But I do think President Biden’s trip was important so that we don’t forget about Ukraine.

Well, again, if those reports are confirmed, it underscores how evil Mr Putin is. I mean, let’s just call it for what it is. And I think that should underscore the point that President Biden was trying to make in Warsaw. It is a fight between good and evil.