After 1,000 days of full-scale war with Russia, is there a mood shift in Ukraine?

In Kyiv, sirens were going off all night on Monday as attack drones entered Ukrainian airspace.

The sound of these drones has become all too familiar for many Ukrainians.

Dmytro Hainetdinov lives in Kyiv and is the head of education at Ukraine’s National World War II Museum. He said that in recent months, the attacks have gotten worse.

“Every day, and it’s not my exaggeration, Kyiv is attacked by Russian kamikaze drones; typically, it’s several dozen drones per day,” he said. 

Since September, Russia has ratcheted up its missile and drone campaign, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure while also hitting homes and apartment blocks. And now, nearly three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there are signs of a significant societal mood shift. 

Hainetdinov said that people have become used to war.

“I remember that when the full-scale war started, I really went to shelter during each alert. Then I understood that it was very exhausting, and I became a bit fatalist. So, in Ukraine, there is a bit of fatalism in the mentality of people.”

Hainetdinov said that the constant threat of drone and missile strikes is tiring.

But he also acknowledged that life in the city is still much safer than many of his friends are experiencing on the front lines.

“I have several friends who now serve in the army, and almost all of them suffered wounds for example, suffered injuries at the front, and after recovery, they still fight.”  

Olga Tokariuk, an associate at the Chatham House think tank, Ukraine Forum, said that everyone in the country has lost someone.

Tokariuk said that the reality of the war — and so much loss — has impacted public opinion in Ukraine. 

“The number of Ukrainians who are willing to start some sort of negotiations with Russia has actually risen in the last 1,000 days since the full-scale invasion began, so if it was around 8%, it’s around 30% now.”

A recent Gallup poll from earlier this month said that 54% of Ukrainians want their country to “seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible.”

Yevhen Fedchenko is a journalism professor at the Kyiv-Mohyla Academy and the chief editor of Stop Fake, a Ukrainian fact-checking website.

He explained that for many Ukrainians, the war has become almost banal.

“People can talk about the war not dramatically as it was in the beginning, but more like some routine, and a new normalcy which is not normal at all.”

One recent example was just last week when Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile at Ukraine.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed there are “no means of countering such a missile, no means of intercepting it, in the world.”

Fedchenko said that many Ukrainians reacted with humor.

“People were just making jokes about the upcoming nuclear war because Ukrainians are already living in the war. The level of perception of Ukrainians is desensitized, I would say.”

Fedchenko said that while many Ukrainians have become desensitized in how they talk about the war, most still believe that there’s no alternative to keeping up the fight as long as Russia is on the offensive.

Russia currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

“Ukrainians know the price of the occupation better than anyone else, so Ukrainians know exactly what it would mean if this conflict would be settled on the conditions of Russia.”

Looking forward, Fedchenko said that the Ukrainian government is preparing for the incoming Trump administration — which is likely to take a step back in its engagement in the conflict and its willingness to support Ukraine.

Fedchenko said that Ukraine will need to rely more heavily on European partners and, at the end of the day, on itself.