Turkey’s Erdoğan strategically backtracks threat to expel Western diplomats, political analyst explains

Soner Cagaptay: Mr. Kavala is a philanthropist and businessman and someone who is known to support the broadening of liberal, democratic civil society in Turkey, and he is at the target of Turkish President Erdoğan’s venom and anger there in recent years. Erdoğan sees him as the linchpin of democratic opposition that’s, I think, of course, exaggerated. So, he’s afraid that his democratic opposition is going to surge and vote him out in a tsunami. And I think he’s using Mr. Kavala and others as symbols of oppression, letting the opposition and its organizers and civil society leaders know that if they stick their neck out, they, too, will be arrested. 

There were large rallies against President Erdoğan in 2013, known as Gezi Park rallies. This was the biggest protest movement to date in Turkey’s history. The allegations are that Mr. Kavala organized these rallies, that he is the linchpin in this effort to vote Erdoğan out. 

No, I would actually say the opposite. I think this is a step back for President Erdoğan. It’s the first time he’s stepping down away from confrontation because he actually threatened to expel these ambassadors. He said it was a done deal over the weekend. And of course, now I think that his administration has walked back the stated policy. These ambassadors look like they won’t be expelled. So, this is one of the first instances we see Erdoğan is stepping down in the face of a united front of Western countries — US and European countries acting together. It’s quite significant. Erdoğan, I think in recent years, has benefited from a strongman image domestically, and a step back, of course, would be a big dent in his strongman image.

Yes and no. So, the assumption was that in recent months, Erdoğan had launched the charm offensive and as a resource-poor country, Turkey needs international investment to return growth. So, Erdoğan has been, for about a year now, on his best behavior toward Europe because of deep economic ties with it and also toward the United States, toward President Biden. He wants to create a narrative of good ties with Biden in order for markets to have confidence to invest in Turkey again. 

… largely economic mismanagement, erratic policies that Erdoğan detests interest rates or high interest rates, and Turkey has quite high inflation, so that has to be matched with high interest rates, but obviously, he’s voting against those policies, and there has been a lot of change at the helm of economic policies.

Big time. Big time. And I think the reason why Erdoğan did not follow up with his threat to expel 10 Western ambassadors is because he was told by his advisers that if Turkey had a rupture in its ties with its most important economic partners — European countries — it would not only destroy the country’s economy, but it would destroy what remains of Erdoğan’s base.