African leaders are warily watching Egypt

NAIROBI, Kenya — Frustrated with their political elites, railing against the lack of freedom, angered at unemployment levels, dismayed at the rising cost of food, fuel and other basics, the people of sub-Saharan Africa share many of the complaints that led to the upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt, along the continent’s northern edge.

The 53-member African Union began its annual meeting in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa on Sunday and, in addition to considering Ivory Coast’s dangerous deadlock and Sudan’s impending split, many of the leaders there will be looking northward warily.

“The underlying issues in Tunisia and Egypt will find an echo in sub-Saharan Africa,” said Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at the Royal Institute for International Affairs in London.

Popular protests that began in January in Tunisia over rising food prices resulted in the country’s long-standing leader, Zine el Abidine Ben Ali, fleeing into exile after 24 years in power. Some are predicting that Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak will be next as street protests continue for a seventh day with crowds calling for him to leave office after 30 years of strong arm, dictatorial rule.

Already there has been some spillover into Sudan, Egypt’s southern neighbour, where students were met with tear gas and batons when they took to the streets of Khartoum and its twin city Omdurman on the opposite side of the Nile River on Sunday in an attempt to copy Egypt’s revolutionary fervor.

One student protester was reportedly killed and the anti-government demonstrations resumed on Monday morning. An attempt to kickstart a Tunisian-inspired overthrow of Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir earlier this month led to the arrest of oppositionist Hassan al-Turabi, quickly defusing protests.

But the Khartoum protests have as much to do with this month’s referendum on southern separation, which will divide Sudan and leave most of the oil in the South.

“Although there are demonstrations in Sudan, a greater trigger point will be the cost of living,” said Vines. “If you look at the riots Cameroon, Ivory Coast and Senegal in 2008, they were partly about the cost of living but also about the frustration of the educated youth over poor job prospects and unaccountable elites.”

Street protests in these sub-Saharan African countries in 2008 were triggered by anger over soaring food prices, and the same thing happened again in Mozambique in late 2010, but the uprisings never found a strong foothold and stopped well short of revolution. Next time around they may not.

“Although many of the grievances are the same — the lack of economic growth, the lack of an opening of economic space — some of the elements that made possible the Tunisian revolution and what is going on in Egypt, don’t exist in sub-Saharan Africa,” said Peter Pham, senior vice president at the National Committee on American Foreign Policy.

Pham says the education levels of ordinary Tunisians and Egyptians, as well as the existence of a sophisticated urban society that is technologically connected to the world, separate Egypt and Tunisia from much of sub-Saharan Africa, although that is gradually changing.

And there are ample reasons to revolt in sub-Saharan Africa where last year saw a rolling back of democracy in some countries, a pattern that is set to continue as more elections are held this year. At the same time human rights and basic freedoms are under siege and slipping down the agenda.

Facebook pages from Zimbabwe to Sudan are demanding change to long-standing rule by old men who cling to power and refuse to cede basic freedoms.

The 16,000 supporters of a Sudanese Facebook group called "Youth for Change" are calling for an end to Bashir’s 22-year rule. In Zimbabwe where Robert Mugabe has clung to power for 31 years, Facebook users posted comments asking a little forlornly, "Why not here?" in reference to the North African uprisings.

“When we see the North on fire,” said James Shikwati, director of Nairobi’s Inter Region Economic Network think tank, "it raises questions about what type of investment is required to make development not lead to trouble but to make society live in harmony."

“The [African] political elites assume that by putting in place infrastructure they are addressing people’s needs, but what events in the north show is what people are willing to do when they feel they are not participating enough in governance,” he said.

“There are young people — hungry and angry — at the bottom; and at the top there are these guys who have been enjoying government largesse, driving huge cars and believing that they know best and the people know nothing,” said Shikwati.

The strife in Tunisia and Egypt may more likely spread out laterally in North Africa to Algeria, Libya and the Middle East rather than leapfrog the vast expanse of the Sahara to the culturally and politically distinct south of the continent.

But the cataclysmic events no doubt make African leaders wary and prod them toward much-needed reform, say analysts, or the events might cause them to dig their heels in further. The warning from North Africa to the leaders of the sub-Saharan Africa is clear: People want their freedom and will fight to get it.

"Africa is in a state of crisis," said Shikwati, "we need to change the way we govern the continent."

More GlobalPost coverage of the protests in Egypt:

Kristof in Egypt: Columnist reports via Twitter, Facebook

US plans charter flights to evacuate Americans from Cairo (VIDEO)

Cairo protest aims to draw one million (VIDEO)

YouTube video showing Juju, 8, lecturing Mubarak goes viral (VIDEO)

Israel allows 800 Egyptian troops into the Sinai (VIDEO)

More about the unrest in the Middle East:

The altered aura of the Arab state	Everything you need to know	Israel nervous as Mubarak teeters