Security concerns to decide Ecuador’s presidential election this weekend

To get a sense of just how bad things are in Ecuador, you just have to speak with 65-year-old construction worker Carlos Chango.

He was riding a bus a few months ago when two men boarded. They robbed everyone.

“They took my cellphone,” he said. “They were looking for money, but I didn’t have any. I never could have imagined it could get this bad.”

Gang violence, rising homicides and theft are the issues at the forefront of Ecuadorians’ minds as they prepare to vote for a new president on Sunday. 

But, the presidential candidates have two very different visions of how to fix these issues and the country’s future.

“More than one person is killed every hour,” candidate Luisa González told supporters at her final campaign rally in the capital, Quito, this week. “And they are not a number. These are loved ones who are killed. A mother. A son. A brother. A father. How do we break the hate?”

Her answer: Reinvest in the country’s health and education, and tackle the rising poverty felt by almost 30% of Ecuadorians.

These ideas resonate with thousands of her supporters who turned out for the rally.

“We need a change in the country,” said supporter Elizabeth Cobo. “And we believe this woman is going to win … 100 years after women won the right to vote in Ecuador.”

Cobo said she believes González can fix Ecuador’s spiraling narco-violence because she will work with a team of competent professionals who know what needs to be done.

Across town, at the same time, incumbent President Daniel Noboa’s supporters also turned out by the thousands for his final campaign rally at a large indoor stadium.

“I want change for Ecuador,” said 27-year-old Nick Brayan López, who traveled from the Amazon region to attend the rally. “We need a young president who can change Ecuador.”

Noboa has campaigned and governed with a tough-on-crime stance. He says he’s following President Nayib Bukele’s lead in El Salvador and building high-security prisons. 

“We are going to end delinquency,” he told supporters. “We are going to end criminality. We are going to do away with these miserable politicians who have kept us behind.” 

Noboa has been soliciting help. He’s requested support from the US in his war on drugs. Last week, he traveled to the United States for a photo op with US President Donald Trump. He’s also contracted Erik Prince, the founder of the US security firm Blackwater, to provide extra security during the elections. 

Prince arrived a week ago. He’s been vocal about his support for Noboa.

“Next Sunday, the people of Ecuador can choose law and order, and choose Daniel Noboa, or they can choose to make Ecuador look just like Venezuela,” Prince told the Spanish news agency EFE.

That discourse resonates with many Noboa supporters.

“Oh yeah, I am 100% sure that if Luisa González wins, we are going to hell,” said retired military officer Víctor Charcopa. “We’re going to hell. But we want heaven.”

González has received her own additional backing.

Last month, she signed an agreement with the county’s top Indigenous political party, Pachakutik, to receive their support ahead of Sunday’s runoff election. Pachakutik won 5% of the vote in the first round of the election in February.

Gaining the support of Indigenous communities is a big deal.

González’s leftist political party, the Citizens’ Revolution, was founded by former President Rafael Correa in the mid-2000s. His government fueled investment in social programs and state institutions. But he had a very conflicted relationship with the country’s Indigenous movements, in particular over his extractive policies on native lands.

Their realignment ahead of Sunday’s vote could put González over the top. Although she is slightly ahead in the polls, the election is essentially a toss-up. 

The result on Sunday, however, will mean two very different directions for the country. It could be a victory for a Trump ally in the region. Or the return of the left to power in Ecuador after almost a decade.