Ukrainians watch closely as the US votes for a new president

Kyiv’s central Maidan Square is where the state violently cracked down on protesters during Ukraine’s 2014 revolution. These days, it’s full of faces: pictures of those who’ve died in the war in a sea of fluttering flags. Ukraine’s blue and yellow are most prevalent, but a few stars and stripes can also be seen, representing fallen Americans.

A stone’s throw away from the square, journalists recently busied themselves preparing a news radio program. Kyrylo Loukerenko, the executive director of Hromadske Radio, said their listeners are paying close attention to what will unfold in the United States.

Americans aren’t the only ones obsessively watching every move that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump make. Ukrainians are following US news almost as closely as their own because what Americans decide could quite literally be a matter of life and death for them.

“Ukrainian audiences are thinking about the war,” Loukerenko said. “They view the US elections in relation to what’s going on on the frontlines. And they are interested in US support in the Ukrainian existential struggle. This is a very, very direct connection.”

The US is the number one supplier of military aid to Ukraine. During the presidential debate in September, Harris touted her record of support for Ukraine as a member of the Biden administration, while Trump notably refused to say that he hoped Ukraine would win the war.

With Russia advancing along several key frontlines and winter around the corner, Ukrainians feel a sense of urgency that more must be done to win.

“Every Ukrainian understands that we depend a lot on the support from our allies, first of all, Americans,” said Daria Kaleniuk, executive director of the Anti-Corruption Action Center. “But sometimes it’s hard for them to understand messages coming from some American leaders, for example, that we want to avoid escalation and we are supporting Ukraine as long as it takes, but we are not supporting Ukraine to victory.”

Out of concerns over escalation, it was a year and a half from the start of the full-scale invasion before President Joe Biden agreed to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. More recently, his administration has refused to support long-range strikes inside Russia for the same reason.

“What American leaders think, what American leaders do, and, first of all, what American citizens think and do directly has an impact on whether people in Ukraine will survive or not,” Kaleniuk said.

This is a common theme: that this isn’t just about Ukraine. Ukrainians say they see themselves as an increasingly precarious dam holding back a flood of authoritarianism from inundating the free world. 

In recent weeks, it was confirmed that North Korea is sending troops to fight alongside Russia. And, as Kyiv residents hunker down during frequent air raids, Iranian drones fly in the skies above them.

Yan Earl-Ruzhytskyi is a student who recently spent five months in Washington, DC, as part of his studies in international relations. He said if he could speak with Trump and Harris he would urge them both not to forget about Ukraine.

“Because, if you lose that position as a global influence or as a center of power, which many countries and other power centers count on, then the consequences would be drastic,” he said.

During his time in the US, he was struck by how polarized the political dialogue has become, he said, adding that he worried about the consequences of Ukraine being reduced to a talking point.  

For young Ukrainians contemplating their futures, the stakes are very real. At the Kyiv School of Economics, classrooms have been set up in the basement so learning can continue even during the frequent air raid alerts.

“A lot of my relatives are now in the Ukrainian army, so I know what it is to worry about the life of your close brothers and relatives,” said Marichka Poptanych, a second-year law student at KSE. “It’s hard.”

Mindful of the polarized discourse in the United States, most Ukrainians are reluctant to state in blunt terms a preference for one candidate over the other, not wanting to be accused of trying to meddle in US affairs. But university students, who are currently exempt from the draft, are increasingly nervous.

“A lot of boys say to me that if Trump wins, we would all join the army, because we wouldn’t be capable of standing without the help of America, without the ammunition, without the world’s leadership. And that might be the end for us,” she said.

Tymofii Brik, the rector of KSE, said he won’t sugarcoat the situation. Ukrainians are concerned about their safety and security and are watching closely to understand if the next American president will have a focus on Ukraine.

“We’re worried about to what extent people in the United States understand the stakes, to what extent they’re going to support Ukraine, whether this support is going to be military or financial, to what extent the United States is going to focus on sanctions, economic sanctions against Russia.”

Stepan Berko, the academic director of KSE’s undergraduate law program, teaches his students about the separation of powers and democracy in the United States — but from a Ukrainian perspective, one that knows all too well what it’s like to live under a totalitarian system.

“I actually believe that Americans have this power as a nation, as people, to prevent some bad things from happening. If they don’t, then they will have to face these challenges and fight back for democracy,” Berko said. “Because, you know, it’s really important here in Ukraine, we had many experiences like that, that democracy is not something that is stable.”

Even if the current degree of military support continues, those on the frontlines wonder exactly what it’s supposed to accomplish, according to Anastasia Stanko. A journalist who has reported from the frontlines, she remembered standing in a destroyed town that is now under Russian occupation.

“And one artillery commander of one unit said, you know, these Americans, they don’t want us to win and they don’t want us to lose. They just want us to like, not die somehow,” she said. “And that’s all. But it’s impossible that we can fight for 10 or 20 years just to stay on such a big frontline, you know?”