Venezuelans head to the polls on Sunday with many hoping for a change in leadership

It’s hard to tell that a quarter of Venezuela’s population has left the country in recent years. In the capital city Caracas, buses are full of people, motorbike taxis and delivery drivers fill the roads and street vendors offer everything from fresh produce to manicures.

There are recent signs that the economy is bouncing back — but only at a surface level.

After experiencing one of the most catastrophic and long-lasting economic collapses in modern history, most Venezuelans still live in poverty. Many are hoping that this Sunday’s presidential election brings change. It’s the first time that President Nicolás Maduro is facing a serious challenge.

Patricia Moreno, a 35-year-old nurse, quit her job at a public hospital because her salary was only about $3 a month.

This is the average monthly salary of health professionals, teachers, university professors and many public employees.

Moreno sells makeup, food and jewelry at a stand on a congested street, where she said she makes about $150 a month on a good day.

But she would need three times that amount simply to feed her family of four, according to the Venezuelan Finance Observatory.

So, she relies on free bags of food distributed by the government and remittances from her sister, who migrated to Colombia five years ago.

It’s the story of millions of Venezuelans, economist Omar Zambrano said. 

“The Venezuelan economy experienced a decline process so lasting and deep that the economy reduced its size up to 80%,” Zambrano explained.

Venezuela was once one of the wealthiest countries in Latin America. Vast oil reserves allowed the government to develop infrastructure, respected universities, a decent public health system and a middle class.

But it was still a very unequal nation, which led to the rise of former socialist President Hugo Chávez. Taking advantage of high oil revenues, Chávez organized a series of social programs that benefited millions of people, while centralizing the government’s power in the presidency. He quickly became a charismatic, polarizing and messianic figure until he died of cancer in 2013. He transferred his political capital to Nicolás Maduro, who narrowly won a controversial election. 

A combination of bad policies, rampant corruption, low oil prices and economic sanctions left the country in ruins. 

A couple of years ago, the government relaxed some price and exchange controls, which Zambrano said allowed for slight economic growth.

Now, the problem is not a lack of medicine or food. In Caracas, dozens of supermarkets, restaurants and boutiques have opened up. But only a small fraction of the population can afford to buy anything. 

“The Venezuelan economy has become this sort of very small economy based on commercial services of imported origin,” Zambrano said. “And the retail sector is very small and relatively unproductive, so it can’t employ a lot of people, and pays low wages.”

Growth is not just limited in terms of economic sectors. It’s also limited to urban areas, especially in Caracas.

In western Venezuela, university professor Angela Henao said her state of Merida has experienced daily power outages lasting up to nine hours. 

Shortly after she bought a generator, the city ran out of gas. She and other colleagues would pick up teachers and students and bring them to class.

But with no transportation, electricity or internet service, students stopped attending their classes. So, Henao moved to Caracas, where power outages are less common.

Many people have high hopes for change after the upcoming presidential election.

After the main opposition leader María Corina Machado was banned from running, the opposition managed to unite behind a surrogate candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia, a 74-year-old former diplomat. 

Machado is campaigning for González Urrutia, who is ahead in the polls. But it’s unclear if Maduro will recognize a defeat.

Another issue is the lack of independent media in Venezuela. This, coupled with other signs of the country’s crumbling democracy, is causing many to move abroad.

“I’m waiting to see what happens on Sunday, and if nothing changes, I’m going abroad, because I won’t believe there’s any democracy left in my country,” said Angel Vizcaya, a journalism student.

A recent poll shows that as many as one-third of Venezuelans would consider migrating if the country’s authoritarian leader is given another six years in power.

An unlevel playing field

President Nicolás Maduro has pledged to hold a free and fair election. But his government has control over democratic institutions, the military, the media and the oil industry, which is Venezuela’s main source of income.

“He has used all this power to try to tilt the election in his favor, and this is problematic,” said Carlos Medina, head of the Venezuelan Electoral Observatory.

Not only has Maduro’s government disqualified the main opposition figure from the July 28 election, it has also arrested dozens of opposition campaign staffers and volunteers this year. That includes Machado’s security chief, who was her closest aide as she drove across the country campaigning.

Machado has been barred from leaving Venezuela and boarding domestic flights. She has traveled the country by land, holding massive and emotional campaign rallies in which she has promised to reunite the families separated by migration. 

For Maduro’s final campaign event on July 25, thousands of supporters from across the country were transported in buses paid for by the government. 

Giant billboards showing Maduro’s face can be found all over in the main roads and highways of Caracas — but none can be seen of the opposition candidate.

In the weeks leading up to the election, Maduro offered special bonuses for public employees and launched a social media campaign to win the public over, appearing on TikTok and at rallies dancing, singing and posing for selfies.

There’s a lot of uncertainty about the outcome of the election.

“We are in a situation in which both sides think they can win, and whatever result is announced, will be disputed by the other side,” said David Smilde, a professor of sociology at Tulane University, who researches Venezuela.

Maduro already said that if he doesn’t win, there will be bloodshed and a fratricidal war. It’s unclear if he would try to retain power. But in the streets, there seems to be little appetite for protests.

“The willingness to protest is very low because people are not willing to risk themselves that way after seeing repression in previous protests,” Smilde said. So, it’s not clear exactly what would happen.”

Marcos Valderde contributed to this report from Caracas, Venezuela.