LONDON, United Kingdom — The jockeying for position has begun. The closest British election in four decades is heading for a melodramatic finish with operatives already trying to spin public opinion in case the British electorate on Thursday fails to give a party the majority it needs to form a government.
Here is a simple guide to understanding the current situation — and why the vote this week may only be phase one in a complicated story:
First past the post doesn’t actually reflect the overall popular vote totals. In the last general election in 2005, the conservatives won 208 seats on 33.23 percent of the vote, while Labour had just 2.75 percent more of the vote but won 346 seats. The reason for this is that the Conservatives tend to win their seats by big margins, where Labour’s victories are much tighter. But it is the Liberal Democrats who are most hurt by the fact that the British system doesn’t reward the popular vote at all. The Lib Dems are polling evenly or just ahead of Labour, yet they are projected to gain fewer than half the number of seats that Labour will get.
But the spin has begun and David Cameron’s circle has been giving unattributable quotes to journalists indicating their man could demand the right to set up a minority government based on winning more popular votes as well as the most seats. As of today, this is the most likely scenario. Like Heath in 1974, Cameron could set up a loose coalition government with the Ulster Unionists, try and pass some popular legislation, like rescinding Labour’s expensive and unloved plans for everyone to have bio-metric identity cards, and build on that momentum to call another election in the autumn in the hopes of winning his outright majority. Cameron has to be careful though: Heath tried the same thing in October 1974 — and lost.
There is a third possibility: The Conservatives close with a rush and win a majority.
But if you follow the wisdom of crowds you would have to say that is unlikely. As of now, most wagers at sports betting sites in Britain are still on the Conservatives as the largest party in a hung parliament. Come Friday, we might get a chance to see how long Sir Gus’s guidelines last.
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