Polls predict tight outcome in Missouri and Indiana

JILL [?]:

Hi, my name is Jill [?]. I’m calling from Succasunna, New Jersey and I’ve just voted. I’ve never seen such a turnout. People were just steaming in. Everyone is upbeat. There’s a really positive energy. There’s, there’s a mix. There’s old, there’s young, there’s everybody. It’s a great feeling.

[TONES]

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

America’s Exit Poll is open. It’s time to hear from real people, and that’s what we’re focusing on all throughout this morning on The Takeaway. You – we want to hear the story of you casting your ballot. What was going through your mind, what did you see? Call us at 877-8MYTAKE or email us at mytake@thetakeaway.org.

My co-host Adaora Udoji is down in Georgia where she’s taking the pulse of voters down there. We’ll have her on later on in the program, actually, from [LAUGHS] a polling line in Atlanta, which is a state that is oddly a toss-up state. Who would have expected it?

Andrea Bernstein is with me here, Takeaway Political Director. We were just talking about Indiana in a fascinating way. But let’s go to the source. Micah Schweitzer joins us now from WNIN. He’s at the 1st Precinct of the American Baptist Church, is that right ? in Evansville, Indiana?

MICAH SCHWEITZER:

That’s right. Yes, good morning.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

All right, good morning Micah. You’re our pal. We’ve been talking to you about Indiana politics all throughout this campaign. Also joining us is Adam Allington, reporter for KWMU Radio in St. Louis, Missouri, another state that is racking up to be crucial in this election. Adam, thanks for joining us.

ADAM ALLINGTON:

Glad to be here.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

Micah, let’s begin with you. What are you seeing at the precinct there in Evansville?

MICAH SCHWEITZER:

Well, even before the doors opened at 6 o’clock, which, as you heard we’re on central time here in this corner of the state ? so 25 minutes ago, a half an hour ago, the line was stretching out the door, the parking lot was full. The line has now made it inside but there are already hundreds of people here to vote. And so, every indication is that this is going to be a busy day with a high turnout.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

And the ? the polls all over Indiana suggest that, you know, this is a, a race that is too close to call – maybe McCain up five in the Zogby Poll, up three in the Rasmussen Poll – a tie basically everywhere else. Even in the Indianapolis Star Poll, it’s a tie.

What do you think turnout is going to do to those polling numbers? Just continue the tie but with higher numbers?

MICAH SCHWEITZER:

Very possibly. I mean it’s interesting to see that it is so close because the last time Indiana voted for a Democratic president was in 1964 and that was Lyndon Johnson. I think that a big factor has to be the protracted primary race, which had Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama on the ground here in Indiana frequently during May.

And so, I think that’s part of what’s energized the Democratic base, although it seems from people I’ve spoken with, that Republicans are energized as well. So it will be interesting to see if, if the polls do continue their trends or if they’re ? if somebody is able to pull ahead with a lead.

I know that Barack Obama is banking heavily on Lake County, which is the only reliably Democratic county in Indiana, that if there’s a high enough turnout there, it could offset some of the more mixed results in other parts of the state.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

That’s the northwest part of the state. Do ? I know it’s on the other side of the state from you, entirely, but any early clues on the Mark Souder/Michael Montagano congressional race up there in northeast Indiana?

MICAH SCHWEITZER:

No, I’m not sure. That’s ? that’s one of these close congressional races in the state. I’m not sure how that’s going to play out. You know, again the, the northwestern corner ? the northwestern corner of the state is the one that’s reliably Democratic.

The northeastern again – less, less reliable. What’s interesting in Indiana though is although it looks like a red state to people looking at electoral maps, when you go down ballot, people are not at all shy about voting a mixed party ticket.

And so, for example, we could ? it’s not unusual to see signs for Barack Obama in someone’s front yard, as well as a sign for Republican Governor, Mitch Daniels. And so mixed ballots are going to be a factor today.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

Well, one of our guests said that Indiana voters are good ticket-splitters. Adam Allington there in Missouri, why is Missouri a tossup state this time around?

ADAM ALLINGTON:

Because Missouri is always a toss-up state, it seems like. Missouri is really considered to be the bellwether of all bellwethers. The state has sided with the winning candidate in every presidential election except one since 1900.

And right now, it ? it’s just ? it’s gonna continue that trend where, you know, people are ? people have been standing in line here now for well over an hour. And, you know, the key in Missouri is, is the large urban districts are gonna take quite a bit longer to get the results in.

And so because of that, you’ll see this large sort of flip flop in returns as, you know, the large urban districts in Boone County where the University of Missouri is and Jackson County, where Kansas City and St. Louis will all report quite late, so it’s really gonna be a long night.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

You know, one of the things that my colleague, Andrea Bernstein was suggesting in, in our reporting earlier this week, is that McCain seems to have made a calculated ploy to try to campaign in rural America. The problem is that there aren’t that many people in rural America.

Can John McCain win Missouri with an overwhelming vote in rural Missouri if he loses Kansas City and St. Louis?

ADAM ALLINGTON:

Well, that, that really is the question. There’s no doubt that it’s, that it’s possible. The question is, is there’s been so many new voters registered in Missouri this year that people are really kind of wondering where they’re gonna shake out.

There’s been about 60,000 new voters added to the rolls in St. Louis City and quite a few in St. Louis County. So for the Obama campaign, they’re really targeting those ? again, those urban districts. They could easily win Missouri if they substantially take St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Boone County and then over in Kansas City.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

There’s been a challenge to some absentee votes I believe or no, actually that’s ?that’s in Indiana. Let me go back to you ?Micah, you said that the voters of Indiana have not chosen a Democrat for president since 1964. That was, of course, the Goldwater race. Is it possible that Republicans and citizens of Indiana view John McCain with as much skepticism as they viewed Goldwater?

MICAH SCHWEITZER:

It is possible. I mean you, you see a real mix and you see a lot of people who have done a lot of soul searching in the past months, trying to figure out who to vote for. There are certainly people who have voted Republican in the past who are now going to be voting Democratic, at least for the top of the ticket.

Although there are plenty of people who are fired up by John McCain, in particular because of Sarah Palin’s more conservative appeal. And so there ? so I would not underestimate Republican enthusiasm here in Indiana.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

All right. Micah Schweitzer, thanks for joining us from WNIN at the 1st Precinct in Evansville, Indiana and Adam Allington, a reporter for KWMU Radio in St. Louis, Missouri. Thank you for joining us, Adam.

ADAM ALLINGTON:

No problem, thank you.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

In both states, long lines, both bellwethers. And you know, it’s going to be interesting to see if there’s any trouble, there’s been a challenge to some absentee votes in ? or absentee ballots in Indiana.

ANDREA BERNSTEIN:

Well, one of the things [?] interesting to me is even with all of this early voting, we haven’t seen meltdown yet ?

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

Well, it’s early.

ANDREA BERNSTEIN:

? in any of the polls.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

It’s early [LAUGHS].

ANDREA BERNSTEIN:

The early voting ? but you know, Colorado, half the people voted. We were watching Colorado for problems and we haven’t seen a huge amount of complaints in that state.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

The question, the question is, did early voting release the pressure, or is it actually engaging people to vote more today? That’s really the question, so ? Andrea, stay with us.

ANDREA BERNSTEIN:

I know.

JOHN HOCKENBERRY:

We will find out.