Can the rebellion in Syria survive?

Pro-government forces in Syria have made rapid progress in Aleppo in the last few days. Thousands of civilians are fleeing the city. Some analysts think the rebellion against President Bashar al-Assad could be on its last legs, after more than five years of war.

In the past week, forces loyal to Assad have taken at least one-third of the territory held by rebels in Aleppo.

Aleppo is the last major urban center with a significant rebel presence. The rebel-held portion of the city has been isolated and cut off from outside help since summer. Affairs there now seem to have come to a crisis.

The rebels are short of ammunition and men. Civilians are desperately short of food and fuel. Attempts to relieve the city from outside have all failed.

Many fear Aleppo could soon fall.

“Yes, I believe [it could fall] in the next month or two.” says Josh Landis, director of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.  

“The Syrian regime says by New Year,” says Landis. “Perhaps that’s optimistic. But it’s surrounded. They can’t get reinforcements. They can’t get new arms. It’s only a matter of time.”  

Assad’s success is largely thanks to outside help, Landis adds. Principally from the Russians, but also from Iran; the Lebanese Hezbollah movement; and even from Iraqi Shiite militias. At the same time, the rebels have been getting less aid from traditional allies like Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Landis points out that the Saudis are “completely immersed” in Yemen, while Turkey is re-orienting its policies after the failed military coup there in July.   

The US-backed rebels are also short of hope, following the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States. Trump spoke critically of the Syrian opposition during his campaign, while there had been hope among rebels that his opponent, Hillary Clinton, would have done more to help.

Landis thinks this is the beginning of the end for the rebels. “Aleppo is where most of the moderate militias that the United States has traditionally been helping with arms, training and so forth, have their center.”

Pro-government forces are doing “everything they can,” says Landis, “to create facts on the ground, right now, so that when Donald Trump comes in [on Jan. 20] their success is really a fait accompli.”

Landis argues that once Aleppo falls, the rebel center will move to Idlib. “That’s a dusty province where al-Qaeda and other Salafist groups … predominate. It will be very hard for Trump or anybody who wants to help rebels, to send arms … because they’re just too Islamist.”

There will still be a fair amount of Syria outside government control, Landis argues, besides the jihadi-controlled province of Idlib. There’s a nascent Kurdish state in the north and northwest. Turkey has occupied a swath of land. And of course, there’s ISIS territory.

But Landis expects the American role in the Syrian war, other than fighting ISIS, will be largely over by the time Trump takes office.