Asia in 2011: the year ahead

BOSTON — The Year of the Golden Rabbit doesn't officially start until Feb. 4, according to the Chinese lunar calendar. But there's no time like the present to assess its potential damage.

According to feng shui experts, it's likely to be a turbulent one, rife with change. Some say there will be economic highs, particularly in industries having to do with metal, while others warn of epidemics and an increase in burglaries. Still others say it will be OK, so long as you don't renovate the east, west or south portions of your home.

So, while you're picking out colors for that northern wall, take our tour of what 2011 might look like in various parts of Asia:

China

Chinese President Hu Jintao and U.S. President Barack Obama have finally set a date! There is likely to be much pageantry involved in Hu's official visit to Washington on Jan. 19, but the two also have much to talk about — not the least of which is North Korea and whether either of them are actually prepared to do anything about its nuclear program.

With a transfer of power planned for 2012, we can expect very little risk-taking — pertaining to North Korea or anything else — from those snug in their seats in 2011. Expect leadership jockeying, as Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao prepare to step down. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang are their likely successors, though it's far from a sure thing.

We can expect billions of dollars in new deals to come out of Hu's visit to D.C., which may temporarily ease American worry over China's economic protectionism. Come March, though, Americans may worry anew. That's when the Chinese parliament is due to approve an economic plan that stresses less reliance on exports and more domestic consumption.

Can China pull off this trick? Will it be able to shift its economy without biting the dust? Many economists forecast the yuan will continue to rise against the dollar, perhaps by as much as 6 percent. 2011 will be a test of the leadership and its ability to avoid a real estate crash and the social unrest sparked by huge price jumps.  Stay tuned for the 2011 battle of China vs. inflation.

Korean peninsula

After sinking a South Korean navy ship and shelling the tiny island of Yeonpyeong, North Korea has seemed eerily quiet as of late. We're banking on that remaining the case until after Hu's big day in Washington, largely out of deference for China. After late-January, though, it's likely we'll see a renewal in hostilities and increased tensions on the peninsula.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak signalled recently that he would sit down for talks with the North, which he previously said he would do only if the North agreed to dismantle its nuclear program. The North hasn't said anything so bold, though it is also making noise about wanting peace. How long before rumors resurface about Pyongyang prepping a third nuclear test?

And even if talks do resume, there is no guarantee they will be productive. The North could walk out, like last time, or demand concessions without agreeing to put the kibosh on nuclear plans — nuclear plans that are likely to lend Kim Jong Il's son and likely successor, Kim Jong Un, a tougher air. In 2011, the pudgy-faced 20-something will attempt to gain some street cred.

Japan

There have been some rosy economic predictions for Japan in 2011,  though it remains to be seen whether the economic stagnantion will let up enough to keep Prime Minister Naoto Kan in office. Kan, the country's fifth leader in four years, may join the ranks of his predecessors as the country clamors for yet another new PM.

Japan had been the world's second-largest economy (behind the United States) for more than 40 years, before it slipped into third place in 2010. China's move into second place signalled a shift on the global stage — or did it?

India

By some projections, India's economy will outpace China's this year. If this does prove to be the case, it will be at least partly because India is poorer and thus starting from more of a disadvantage. It would also say more about the slowing growth of the Chinese economy than the speed of growth in India.

Still, India has demographics on its side. It will soon have the world's largest working-age population, that is people between 18 and 65 who are contributing members of society, and just as China's is shrinking. When India's largest-ever census is completed on Feb. 28, the world will gain even more insight into who makes up this rising Asian power.

And let us not forget about cricket. Arguably the most anticipated event for Indians next year is the 10th  Cricket World Cup, which will be hosted by India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. The opening ceremony is in Dhaka on Feb. 17 and the event runs through early April.

Indonesia

Jakarta’s round-the-clock gridlock is less of an inconvenience and more like a $1.4 billion mistake, according to city planners. Some politicians have even recommended abandoning the capital altogether.

But in 2011, city administrators promise they’ll finally break ground on a public rail system, in an effort to alleviate congestion before it’s too late. Leaders say the Japanese-funded private-public rail system in on track for a 2016 completion. But even if their word is kept, the rail lines are unlikely to solve traffic woes completely.

Thailand

We could be looking at elections in Thailand. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has long said there would be a new vote once the economy is righted and the country is calm. Although Thailand is still shaken from the Red Shirts' deadly protests in April and May — and though Abhisit’s term does not officially end until early 2012 — he might call for elections in 2011 anyway. Conventional wisdom suggests Thailand’s rural, working-class majority would not re-elect his party. By calling for 2011 elections, even Abhisit acknowledges that he will need a new round of voting to prove his party’s democratic legitimacy.

Burma

Many observers have foreseen more lopsided growth in Burma in the coming year, following November's elections, which were widely dismissed as rigged, and the release of famed dissident Aung San Suu Kyi after more than 15 years under house arrest. Tourism is likely to increase, as well as foreign trade. But the question is, will it benefit anyone besides the junta?