Why Ukraine’s ceasefire is falling apart in Debaltseve

KYIV, Ukraine — The big guns in eastern Ukraine have fallen quiet along some parts of the front, but not in Debaltseve, the hotly contested railway hub where Sunday’s ceasefire could shatter into pieces.

There, thousands of Ukrainian military troops are reportedly hemmed in and under heavy fire from nearly all sides by Moscow-backed separatist rebels, who have vowed for weeks to kick pro-Kyiv forces out of the area.

The weekend’s peace agreement — reached in Minsk, Belarus by the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia — apparently changed little in that part of the battle zone.

A Ukrainian army spokesman claimed on Monday that rebels had fired on Debaltseve some 88 times that day alone — out of a reported 112 total attacks in the past 24 hours. He also said five soldiers were killed and about 25 wounded in the past day.

Both rebels and Ukrainian forces have traded accusations of ceasefire violations along other parts of the front, such as near the rebel stronghold of Donetsk and just east of the southern port city of Mariupol.

But Debaltseve remains the focus of the lingering fighting, since there was apparently no clear agreement over its status during the marathon peace talks in Minsk. A weekend report by Kommersant newspaper in Russia claimed nearly half of the 16-hour discussion was centered on just how dire the situation is for Ukrainian forces there. 

Even before the truce took effect on Sunday, rebel leaders made no bones about their claims to Debaltseve. If they manage to take it, the city could serve as a key transport connection between the two self-declared separatist “republics.”

“There’s not a word about Debaltseve in the agreements,” rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko said on Saturday.

But Kyiv officials maintain the Ukrainian-controlled town — whose onetime population of around 25,000 has reportedly been reduced to just 3,000 or 4,000 — is theirs. On Monday, they refused an offer by separatists to lay down their weapons and evacuate the area.

“There are the Minsk agreements, according to which Debaltseve is ours,” military spokesman Vladislav Seleznev told Reuters on Monday. “We will not leave.”

Ukrainian authorities say they’ve only responded to rebel shelling with counterattacks. Whether or not that's true, the exchanges are an ominous sign for a fragile ceasefire hailed by many as a last-ditch effort for peace in Ukraine.

Thanks in large part to the ongoing violence, both sides are now refusing to pull back their heavy weaponry — a major stipulation of the Minsk agreement — until the other stops firing.

The following infographic, by civic watchdog Slovo i Dilo (which means "words and deeds"), shows the pullback lines for both Ukrainian and rebel heavy weaponry as agreed to in Minsk.

“The heavy weaponry withdrawal starts only after the ceasefire,” rebel defense chief Eduard Basurin said Monday, Russian news agencies reported.

“And if the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not stop shellings, which come in violation of the Minsk agreements, the [separatist] militias will not pull back their weaponry.”

Meanwhile, the civilians who have been left behind in Debaltseve and other nearby cities continue to suffer amid the ongoing fighting.

On a visit to the area, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Honcharenko said Monday the embattled town faces a “humanitarian catastrophe,” and for weeks has been deprived of heat, electricity and running water.

“There is unfortunately no trace of the ceasefire right here,” he wrote Monday.