Ukraine is not technically at war

Editor's note: Ukraine's president and the leaders of Germany, Russia and France reached a deal early Thursday in Minsk they hope will finally bring peace to eastern Ukraine. Read Senior Correspondent Dan Peleschuk's analysis here.

KYIV, Ukraine — Despite more than 5,000 deaths, alleged Russian military incursions, and countless daily artillery barrages that have ravaged its depressed east, Ukraine is not really at war.

That’s right: Technically, Ukraine calls its military campaign against Moscow-backed separatists an “anti-terrorism operation.” And despite official claims early in the crisis, the country isn’t formally at war because martial law — which temporarily hands most governing power to the military — hasn’t been declared.

But that may soon change if Wednesday’s peace talks in Minsk, which bring together the leaders of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia, fail to produce results.

“I, the government and the parliament are ready to take the decision to introduce martial law in all territories of Ukraine,” said Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko ahead of the meeting. 

It may be a welcome move for those who criticize what they say is the undefined nature of Ukraine’s military operation.

That includes the controversial anti-draft advocates who believe the current wave of conscription is unlawful without a formal declaration of war, as well as veterans who have complained about a lack of benefits thanks to their uncertain legal status. 

But most others are quick to point to its downsides.

For one, opponents of martial law say Ukraine’s military is unprepared to take on the monumental and bureaucratically daunting task of governing entire swaths of territory, especially when they’re already struggling to hold back a rebel onslaught. 

That’s not to mention that it would also impose curfews, ban elections, and place limits on the free transfer of information, among other measures. 

“Don’t forget that martial law means the restriction of freedom of speech, the restriction of the right to gather publicly, the restriction of methods of communication, shutting off the Internet, the possibility of confiscating any [personal] materials for military use, and the possibility of being force to work for the benefit of the army,” presidential adviser Yuriy Biryukov said in a television interview late last month.

“When it comes to this point, supporters of martial law generally clam up.”

Biryukov added that the move would largely aim at mobilizing the country’s entire economy to serve the war effort.

And speaking of the economy — which is teetering on the brink of default as officials scramble to negotiate loans from the International Monetary Fund — even the president himself admits that martial law won’t exactly be much help in that department.

“Who will come to a country in a state of war?” Poroshenko asked in an interview last week with the Spanish newspaper El Pais, referring to investors. 

It’s not the first time Poroshenko has threatened to formally declare a state of war, and it may not be the last.

Analysts speculate the president may be shying away from a decision that could further provoke Russia, which both Western and Ukrainian officials claim is beefing up the separatists with military aid, including soldiers.

“If he declares a state of war, that might invite Russia to do away with the disguises and send in an expeditionary force as it did in Georgia in 2008,” wrote Russia expert Leonid Bershidsky, adding that the conflict ended in a speedy Georgian defeat. 

“The Ukrainian president doesn't mind portraying himself as the West's last line of defense against Putin if it wins him international aid, but he doesn't want to risk an all-out Russian attack.” 

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