The final preparations are happening for the conclave that begins on Wednesday to elect the next pope.
The highest-ranking clergy in the Catholic Church — 133 cardinals in all — will be sequestered inside the Sistine Chapel for the election process. Only cardinals under the age of 80 are eligible to vote.
The men will hand over their phones, take an oath of secrecy and then gather every day in the Sistine Chapel where they will vote up to four times a day until at least 89 of them agree on the same candidate.
Once two-thirds of the body reach a consensus, the conclave will wrap up with a puff of white smoke from the chimney, followed by a public appearance by the newly installed pope at St. Peter’s Square. There is no strict time limit on how long the conclave will go, but the cardinals are expected to reach a decision within a few days. If it goes on longer, they will hold a runoff between the top two candidates.
This is the largest and most diverse conclave to date, with cardinals who come from all over the globe. They’re also divided on some big issues. There’s been plenty of speculation in the news media about the presumed likely candidates. But experts say that no one really knows who will be chosen as the successor to Pope Francis.
Thomas Reese, a Jesuit priest and a longtime Vatican watcher with the Religion News Service in Rome, said that a lot of what happens inside the secretive conclave will be highly choreographed. The rituals and procedures that will take place in the Sistine Chapel, Reese said, will look a lot like those in the 2024 film, “Conclave.”
According to Reese, the cardinals are asking themselves questions like, “Does he agree with me on the issues that face the church and how we should deal with them? Second, do I have a personal relationship with this man? Is he my friend? Is he somebody that respects me? Because I want to have an influence in the next papacy. And third, they’re concerned about how this man, if he’s elected pope, would be received in my part of the world, in my country, in my diocese.”
The candidates for the papacy are the same men who will be casting their votes, probably starting on Wednesday afternoon. Technically, the cardinals could pick someone from outside the conclave as the next pope. But that hasn’t happened in centuries.
In all, there have been 266 different Bishops of Rome — that’s part of the pope’s title. The Catholic Church has about 2,000 years of history and St. Peter, the disciple of Jesus, is considered to be the first pope.
Reese said that some of the conclaves in recent history were quite predictable.
“Everybody knew that Pacelli was going to be elected Pius XII; that Montini was going to be elected Paul VI; and everybody knew that Ratzinger was going to be elected Benedict XVI,” Reese said. “On the other hand, John the 23rd was a big surprise; John Paul I, John Paul II, Pope Francis, these were big surprises when they were elected.”
As recently as the conclave of 1922, all of the cardinals were from Europe. This year, they’re from 71 different countries: 18% are from Latin America; 9% from North America; 16% from Asia; and 14% from Africa and the Middle East, according to Meghan Clark, a professor of moral theology at St. John’s University in New York.
Beyond the geographic diversity, there’s a well-known ideological divide between more inclusive and progressive cardinals, and those who are more staunchly conservative.
But there’s also a common thread running through this conclave.
Francis — who was pope for 12 years — appointed 80% of the cardinals who will be choosing his successor.
Clark said that doesn’t mean they’ll pick someone just like Francis.
“When he appointed cardinals, he prioritized people who were pastors,” Clark said. “Your pastoral gifts, your commitment to being a pastor to the people, your pastoral skills were really paramount. But he didn’t only appoint cardinals who agreed with him or agreed with his decisions.”
Francis welcomed dialogue, Clark said, because he thought it was good for the church and for unity.
So, the coming days may see a lot of debate within the college of cardinals. Most of these men have never participated in a conclave.
Gustavo Morello, a Catholic priest from Argentina and professor of sociology at Boston College, said that there’s another practical aspect of the conclave that’s important to understand.
“A big chunk of these people do not know each other,” he explained. “So, how are you going to pick someone if you don’t know the people?”
Morello said that being a good pastor and ministering to the faithful is one thing. But sitting at the top of an institution so complex — and so global — is something different.
On certain world issues, there’s widespread agreement among Catholic leaders.
It’s difficult to imagine the next pope, for example, taking a radically different approach from Francis on climate change, human rights, migration or war.
But there’s a theological factor here that makes predictions impossible, according to Meghan Clark from St. John’s.
“The responsibility and the oath that the cardinals take when they go into the conclave is essentially to pray for the Holy Spirit to help guide their decision,” she said.
As the late Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger explained in 1997, the Holy Spirit does not pick the next pope, but rather gives the conclave space and freedom, without abandoning the cardinals as they make their choice.