Former US ambassador to China warns against alienating allies as China seeks greater global influence
The global order is shifting in ways we have not seen since 1945.
Europeans, long regarded as among Washington’s staunchest allies, are now viewed by the White House as “pathetic freeloaders.”
US President Donald Trump is increasingly aligning with Russia. Taiwan has the jitters. And China is positioning itself on the world stage as a reliable force for stability.
Nicholas Burns is watching this realignment closely. He was US Ambassador to NATO under former President George W. Bush. His more recent post was US Ambassador to China.
Burns now teaches diplomacy and international relations at Harvard Kennedy School. He joined The World’s host Marco Werman for a discussion on the implications of the shifting geopolitical situation.
Marco Werman: Would you say a security breach like what we’ve seen with the Signal episode emboldens China?
Ambassador Nicholas Burns: The Chinese are going to seek every advantage. We’ve seen this over the last several months since President Trump came into office in several domains. First, as we’ve pulled back with the destruction of USAID — we’ve pulled back from assistance programs, development programs around the world — China is moving in. As President Trump and Vice President Vance have denigrated the European Union countries, our natural allies, the Chinese have moved in to try to divide and conquer.
I left China about two months ago, and one of the big takeaways from my three years in China is that the US and China are pure powers. I think the US is more powerful, but China’s gaining. But if you add the allies — Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines in East Asia, but also the European allies — then the United States has a substantial advantage if we’re true to our allies. So, what I don’t get is why the administration is attacking our allies in Europe especially, but also in Asia.
I left China about two months ago, and one of the big takeaways from my three years in China is that the US and China are pure powers. I think the US is more powerful, but China’s gaining. But if you add the allies — Japan, South Korea, Australia and the Philippines in East Asia, but also the European allies — then the United States has a substantial advantage if we’re true to our allies. So, what I don’t get is why the administration is attacking our allies in Europe especially, but also in Asia.
How do you think generally, Chinese officials, I mean, the same ones you dealt with every day, how do they view this opening phase of the second Trump administration?
They may see it as a gift. The Chinese have been saying for many years now under President Xi Jinping’s leadership that the East is rising and the West is declining. And we didn’t believe that. And so, the policy of the Biden administration was get closer to Japan, strengthen the security alliance with the Philippines, with Australia, work with India as our partner to try to limit Chinese power. That’s all evaporating right now because we’re basically saying that the allies don’t matter to us as much anymore.
And if you look at the same phenomenon occurring in Europe, where Putin is running amok. And at the same time we’re downgrading NATO, our natural alliance over the last 76 years. So, I’m concerned that we’re taking away one of the great strengths of the United States and giving China an opportunity to fill in behind us and try to weaken us in the process.
And if you look at the same phenomenon occurring in Europe, where Putin is running amok. And at the same time we’re downgrading NATO, our natural alliance over the last 76 years. So, I’m concerned that we’re taking away one of the great strengths of the United States and giving China an opportunity to fill in behind us and try to weaken us in the process.
Some would argue that America is already stretched too thin and that in this more multipolar world, Washington needs to kind of get real and negotiate with adversaries, even if they are untrustworthy. Clearly, we’re not in this post-World War II world anymore, are we?
But we can do two things at once. We certainly need, and I feel this very strongly, we need to communicate with the Chinese, we need to work with the Chinese when our interests align, say, on issues like fentanyl or climate change and I think the Trump administration is right to say we need to be working with the Chinese as well as competing with them. But you have to do both, and you can do both, two things at the same time.
Under Biden, do you think there were disadvantages to having China on the back foot, perhaps making them feel less secure or more prepared to lash out?
I don’t think so. Because, no matter what we do, whether we’re friendly to the Chinese or not friendly to them, they have very clear goals in front of them. And China wants to be the strongest military power in the Indo-Pacific and overtake the United States. China wants to divide the United States from its allies. And certainly, China wants to use its new power —whether it’s cyber offensives against the United States, and that’s happening for sure, whether it’s a competition in space with the United States.
So, I think the proper way for us to see China is it’s largely a competitor. And so, we’ve got to compete. But at the same time, and this is what makes this relationship so complex and difficult to manage, we’ve also got to be in touch with them, work with them on climate, work with them on fentanyl, try to work with them on global health, although they have never told us the truth about what happened in Wuhan five years ago at the beginning of the [COVID-19] pandemic, but to work both sides of the relationship in a largely competitive way.
So, I think the proper way for us to see China is it’s largely a competitor. And so, we’ve got to compete. But at the same time, and this is what makes this relationship so complex and difficult to manage, we’ve also got to be in touch with them, work with them on climate, work with them on fentanyl, try to work with them on global health, although they have never told us the truth about what happened in Wuhan five years ago at the beginning of the [COVID-19] pandemic, but to work both sides of the relationship in a largely competitive way.
So, you might have seen this. Reuters recently reported that a secretive network of Chinese firms is trying to woo recently laid off US government employees, asking them to share increasingly sensitive information about government operations. Is that something that’s happened before?
I’m not aware that it’s happened before. I. I guess it’s not surprising, but obviously it’s incumbent upon anybody leaving the US government obviously never to divulge classified information to anybody, but also to be on guard from sweet talk from Chinese firms that may or may not be legitimate firms.
If we pull back, the globe is in a dramatically different place than it was just a few months ago when you were at the US embassy leading it in Beijing. How much is shifting, do you think, with regard to the US-China relationship?
I see the fundamental change taking place from the Trump administration towards NATO, downgrading NATO and unfortunately growing closer to Russia at the expense of both NATO and Ukraine. I think that’s a revolutionary change, potentially, in American foreign policy, which is not going to work for us because we ought to be close to our allies and NATO allies, but not to Russia. I’m less clear about China, whether we’re going to see substantial changes. We’ll see if at some point in the next several months [if] President Trump and President Xi Jinping meet.
I frankly think that President Trump was correct to put tariffs on China, because the Chinese have not done enough on fentanyl, for instance, which is the leading cause of death in American society, and the Chinese have been so aggressive in trying to dump their EVs and solar panels and lithium batteries on the American market.
I think it’s right to try to raise the level of concern by imposing the tariffs, but I would predict we will not see a sustained trade war between the US and China, because I think a trade deal ultimately is probably more likely to happen. We’ll see what President Trump decides to do, but frankly, I think some of his opening moves have been sensible.
I frankly think that President Trump was correct to put tariffs on China, because the Chinese have not done enough on fentanyl, for instance, which is the leading cause of death in American society, and the Chinese have been so aggressive in trying to dump their EVs and solar panels and lithium batteries on the American market.
I think it’s right to try to raise the level of concern by imposing the tariffs, but I would predict we will not see a sustained trade war between the US and China, because I think a trade deal ultimately is probably more likely to happen. We’ll see what President Trump decides to do, but frankly, I think some of his opening moves have been sensible.
Well, let’s shift our attention to Europe. You were NATO ambassador. France is discussing now extending his country’s small nuclear umbrella over the continent. Poland is thinking of building its own atomic weapon. Is NATO essentially over?
I don’t think NATO’s dead, but it may be on temporary life support, and we’ve got to get it off life support. And back to what it has always been for 76 years now. You don’t want to see allies begin to think about creating their own nuclear deterrent. We don’t want to have a proliferation of nuclear weapons in Europe. And for 76 years, every president from Truman to Eisenhower on down have understood the United States is strongest when we’re operating within the NATO alliance.
And so, it’s critical that President Trump and his team rethink this very, very unfortunate policy. And one of the things that’s come out over the last couple of days is further denigration of the European allies by the administration. Three facts about Europe and Canada, why they’re important to the United States. They’re the largest investors in our economy. They’re the largest trade partners of the United States. And they’re the largest collection of American allies in the world.
You know, if we didn’t have such an alliance, we’d want to create it. So, why would we give it away now? This is an important question for us to be debating here in the US.
And so, it’s critical that President Trump and his team rethink this very, very unfortunate policy. And one of the things that’s come out over the last couple of days is further denigration of the European allies by the administration. Three facts about Europe and Canada, why they’re important to the United States. They’re the largest investors in our economy. They’re the largest trade partners of the United States. And they’re the largest collection of American allies in the world.
You know, if we didn’t have such an alliance, we’d want to create it. So, why would we give it away now? This is an important question for us to be debating here in the US.
This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
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