In just the past couple of weeks, the Trump administration has shaken up the conversation about the war in Ukraine.
On Thursday, US and Russian diplomats met in Turkey to try to restore the normal functioning of their diplomatic missions.
And on Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is expected to visit the White House to sign a rare earth mineral deal with the US.
Earlier this week, when Trump was asked about what Ukraine could expect to get out of a deal, he said, “$350 billion, lots of equipment, military equipment and the right to fight on.”
Still, questions remain about how far this “reset of relations” can go — and what kinds of security guarantees the US is willing to offer Ukraine. Trump stressed the US could continue providing military equipment to Ukraine until a deal with Russia was in place to end the war.
It’s become something of a theme for each incoming US president over the past 25 years since Vladimir Putin came to power in Russia: trying to “normalize,” “improve” or “reset relations” with Russia.
George W. Bush met with Putin in June of 2001 in Slovenia where he famously said, “I looked the man in the eye, I found him to be very straightforward, and trustworthy. We had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul,” adding that the two countries needed to get beyond the Cold War.
However, the relationship later deteriorated especially after Russia invaded Georgia. In 2009, the US tried again, when President Barack Obama visited Moscow for meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Just a year later, the US and Russia signed the New START treaty to limit both countries’ nuclear arsenals.
However, the US-Russia relationship took a hit again when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 — which promoted US sanctions. Donald Trump, in his first term, followed by Joe Biden, also sought to reach out to Putin.
But then, in February of 2022, Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the already fraught US-Russia relationship reached a new low.
Now, the Trump administration is attempting yet another reset with Russia.
“I appreciate that President Trump has been so vocal about wanting peace in Ukraine,” said Michael McFaul, a professor of political science at Stanford University and a former US ambassador to Russia. “Who doesn’t want peace in Ukraine? Everyone wants peace in Ukraine. And I appreciate that he is personally involved; that’s something that was not there before.”
According to McFaul, engaging with Putin directly, as the Trump administration has now been doing, is a crucial component to achieving peace.
“What I think is problematic, at least so far, is in order to try to achieve peace, Trump thinks the only guy he needs to convince is Vladimir Putin,” McFaul said.
So far, the US has been leading two negotiations in its attempt to end the war. A US-Russia track, and separately, a US-Ukraine track.
McFaul said he’s concerned that the US has already given Russia too many concessions, even in this early stage of negotiations.
“We’ve seen the Trump administration say President Zelenskyy has to give up territory, Ukraine can’t join NATO. They’ve said if there’s a peacekeeping force in Ukraine, it won’t include Americans. President Trump has invited Russia to join the G8, he’s already talked about lifting sanctions.”
According to McFaul, these types of statements are a promising sign, showing that the administration is talking about Ukraine’s ability to defend itself. Many observers, though, are skeptical that Russia is at all interested in stopping its assault on Ukraine — despite US efforts to bring peace.
In an interview on The World three years ago, McFaul recalled a conversation he had while he was the US ambassador to Russia, with Igor Shuvalov, a senior Kremlin official.
“He said, ‘Mike, remember two things: one, we care more about Ukraine than you do, and two, you guys have short memories, we don’t. So we’re going to care more, and then you’re going to forget about this part of the world and that will play to our advantage.’”
Looking back, McFaul said, on one hand, Shuvalov was wrong. He said that the US and European partners did not give up on Ukraine after the full-scale invasion — and supported Ukraine’s resistance against Russia.
On the other hand, McFaul said, his biggest fear is that if negotiations with Russia and Ukraine fall apart, the US could walk away altogether, halting military aid for Ukraine and disengaging diplomatically.
That, he said, would play straight into the Kremlin’s hands.