On election day in Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko hosted a four-hourlong press conference. He answered dozens of questions including those posed by Western journalists.
A BBC reporter asked him whether these elections could be considered democratic given that his opponents are either in prison or in exile.
Lukashenko said that “some are in prison and some in exile, but you’re here. Everyone has the right to choose. That’s democratic.”
For those who oppose Lukashenko, that’s the so-called democratic choice that remains. Observers say that everyone is aware that this election is neither free nor fair, but the democratic performance must go on.
In a video posted online by The Guardian, Minsk residents shared their views on the election. One woman says that the election will go “the same as before, the same as it always went,” adding, “I won’t predict the exact percentage, but everyone knows the result.”
On Monday, the election commission in Belarus announced that Lukashenko won the election, with nearly 87% of the vote. The Belarusian opposition in exile, along with other European leaders, have called the election a sham. But the strongman leader seems to be cracking down on dissent even more than in the past.
Katia Glod is a policy fellow with the European Leadership Network and an expert on politics in Belarus. She said it wasn’t always like this. In previous elections, although the result was predetermined, opposition candidates would be allowed to run.
“And now, we did not see that,” Glod said. “Now, we saw an election which was very similar to the Russian presidential election — when we have spoilers rather than real candidates.”
Glod said that some of the candidates who ran against Lukashenko even endorsed him. In the last presidential election, in 2020, there was a robust opposition movement that erupted in the country. That’s when things began to turn.
People came out to the streets and chanted for Lukashenko to go away. The opposition candidates were popular and were supported by hundreds of thousands of protesters in Minsk, and throughout the country. Lukashenko responded with violence.
Armed police attacked protesters, beat them and used stun grenades to disperse them.
Glod said that tens of thousands of people were arrested and prosecuted. There are now about 1,200 political prisoners in Belarus, and all independent media has been banned and labeled by the government as extremist.
Glod said that now, political freedom in the country is all but gone.
“People are really intimidated. People don’t talk about politics now,” she said. “In 2020, everyone talked about politics. Now, even if someone tries to start a conversation, it’s not really picked up; people just avoid this topic altogether because they really don’t know who can report on them.”
But Glod said that the irony is that Lukashenko’s internal crackdown hasn’t improved his own political freedom. In a way, he’s put himself in a corner.
“Before 2020, Lukashenko was very able to maneuver between the West and Russia, and kind of play them against each other,” she said. “After the 2020 elections, when Lukashenko lost legitimacy, it was really Putin and the Kremlin who supported him politically and economically.”
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine solidified that dynamic between Russia and Belarus. About 70% of Belarus’ exports that used to go to the EU are now exported to Russia. Belarus’ reliance on Russia forced it to become a party to the war in Ukraine.
“Lukashenko did allow Russian troops to invade Ukraine from Belarus,” Glod said. “Belarus has also been a launching pad for Russian missiles, for Russian bombers; it has helped a lot logistically.”
According to Glod, Putin and Lukashenko are content with their arrangement — where Lukashenko’s dependence on Moscow is nearly total.
Glod said that she’s concerned that the deeper this relationship gets, the harder it will be to get out, even in a post-Putin and post-Lukashenko reality.