Russia and Ukraine react cautiously to Trump reelection

When it became clear that Donald Trump would win the US presidential election, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy didn’t hesitate to contact him.

“Zelenskiy, I think, was one of the first leaders who congratulated Trump for his victory,” said Maria Avdeeva, a Ukrainian security expert based in Kharkiv.

She said that Ukraine’s approach to its relationship with the US has been pragmatic: “We need bipartisan support for Ukraine, because with only one party’s support, Ukraine will not be able to win the war.”

In Europe, many countries will be paying close attention to the Trump administration’s approach to the war between Russia and Ukraine. While campaigning, Trump said that he would “end” the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of becoming president. 

So far, government officials in both Russia and Ukraine are being cautious in their statements about Trump and his policy toward the war. 

While congratulating Trump on his election victory, Zelenskiy underlined something that Trump said during his previous term as president about “peace through strength.” 

For Zelenskiy, that means more US military support to help Ukraine keep up the fight against Russia’s invasion.

Avdeeva said that right now, Ukraine is facing a dire situation on the front lines.

“The offensive coming out of Russia is the most severe since the beginning of the invasion, and the only way to change that is to supply Ukraine with more weapons and support that will show Russia the strength,” she explained.

In Ukraine, there continues to be concern about Trump’s policy positions.

Trump has expressed skepticism about US aid to Ukraine, and J.D. Vance, Trump’s vice president-elect, has said, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine.”

On the other hand, Avdeeva said, many Ukrainians welcome a shake-up in US policy.

“The fact that Trump was elected, it is not seen as catastrophic, because we already were not seeing all the help that was promised at the beginning of the invasion.”

According to Avdeeva, many Ukrainians have become disillusioned with US support, believing that President Joe Biden’s incremental approach has been too cautious.

There are also some concerns that Trump will try to pressure Ukraine to enter peace talks.

“Any kind of negotiations need two sides, and Russia is not interested in that at the moment,” Avdeeva said, especially as Russia continues to make gains on the battlefield.

One of Russian state media’s top TV hosts, Olga Skabeyeva, mentioned Trump’s claim that he would end the war within 24 hours of becoming president.

“We remember this key election promise, but we certainly don’t believe it,” she said.

Francis Scarr, a journalist with BBC Monitoring, has been tracking the reaction to Trump’s election on Russia state media.

“The thing that struck me most about how they reacted was how cautious they seemed to be,” Scarr said.

When Trump was first elected in 2016, some Russian government officials were seen celebrating — even toasting to Trump’s victory with glasses of champagne.

That is not the case this time around.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday that the government will judge Trump on his first steps in office. According to Scarr, that means there’s no point in assuming that relations with the US will somehow improve after his victory.

Peskov said, “Let’s not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.”

Even the most bombastic Russian state TV news host, Vladimir Solovyov, was relatively cautious — echoing the Kremlin’s message.

 “We’re America’s enemy,” Solovyov said. “And at the end of the day, no matter who’s president, Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, it’s not going to be good for us.”

Scarr said that the Kremlin was hoping for a chaotic election: “There was actually more hope that there would be some kind of inconclusive result, that would then lead to Trump supporters to reject the result, resulting in some kind of civil unrest, or at the very least, widespread protests in the country, if not some kind of armed insurrection.”

Scarr said that the Kremlin welcomes any event that could distract the US from engaging in world affairs — like the war in Ukraine.

Another tool that Kremlin-controlled media outlets use is contrasting the chaos of the Western elections with the stability of Putin’s system.

“Russia is achieving its objectives in Ukraine, and Putin is successfully running the country, and everything here is going to plan. So, they’re almost using the election as a way of undermining the potential attractiveness of a Western, liberal, democratic system,” Scarr said.

On Thursday, during the opening of the annual meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin congratulated Trump on his election victory. He also said that Trump has expressed “desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, this deserves attention at the very least.”