Ukraine faces artillery and air defense shortages

Top US military leaders testified before the House of Representatives last week and unequivocally urged Congress to pass a bill that would provide significant military aid to Ukraine. The Senate passed such a bill worth tens of billions of dollars in February, but it’s been held up in the House since, and government officials in the US and Ukraine are saying that the delay in military aid is already impacting the battlefield.

Yesterday, speaker Mike Johnson said he plans to advance the bill for a vote, along with other national security spending packages.

“The severity of this moment cannot be overstated. If we do not continue to support Ukraine, Ukraine can lose,” said General Christopher Cavoli, the head of US European Command and NATO’s supreme allied commander on the continent.

“Based on my experience in 37+ years in the US military, if one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back,” he said, “the side that can’t shoot back loses, so the stakes are really high.”

Ukraine is being outgunned by Russia, according to Cavoli.

Yuriy Sak, an advisor to the minister of strategic industries in Ukraine, agrees.

“The major concern on the frontlines at the moment is the lack of artillery, lack of ammunition and, if the situation doesn’t change very soon, we are likely to be in a position where the ratio will be 6 to 1,” Sak said.

That is, for every six artillery shells that Russia fires, Ukraine will only be able to respond with one.

In his testimony, General Cavoli said that if Ukraine isn’t adequately supplied, that ratio could jump to 10 to 1 within weeks.

Russia isn’t only firing on military targets. It’s intensified its bombing campaign against Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure as well.

Just last week, Russia destroyed Ukraine’s largest coal power plant near Kyiv. 

Sergii Grabskyi, a retired Ukrainian colonel and a military expert, said Ukraine is increasingly exposed as it waits for more support from the United States.

“Since the beginning of this invasion, Ukraine is under permanent pressure of airstrikes from the territory of the Russian Federation,” Grabskyi said. “No one in our civilization suffers from such intensive attacks of different types of air armament.”

He said that Ukraine’s air defense capabilities had improved compared to the beginning of the war, thanks in part to the US Patriot missile defense system.

But Grabskyi said Ukraine is a huge country and, with Russia’s ongoing attacks, it needs a lot more to defend itself.

“We, as Ukrainian citizens, are suffering now from the lack of anti-aircraft ammunition, mostly missiles,” he said. “Because, to protect the territory of the country, which is the biggest by territory in Europe, even 25 anti-aircraft complexes such as Patriot would not be enough, I’m afraid.”

Military experts in Ukraine point out yet another challenge facing the country’s war effort: a shortage of troops. 

“It’s been more than two years. In that period of time, you understand that some of the troops need to be rotated,” Sak said. 

“There are losses on our side as well, so we need to mobilize more soldiers so that we can carry out these rotations.”

Ukraine’s parliament recently passed a law lowering the draft age from 27 to 25, aiming to mobilize more troops to fill those gaps along the frontlines. President [Volodymyr] Zelenskiy has signed off on it.

But, despite the shortages in ammunition and personnel, Sak said that morale is still high based on his conversations with troops.

“Very often, even when we speak to those soldiers who have been fighting now for more than two years, and they’re tired, but they are still determined,” he said. “And it cannot be any other way because everybody understands what’s at stake.” 

It’s a war of survival, Sak said. “We understand that you know there’s no other choice for us but to continue to fight until we win.”

Retired Colonel Grabskyi said it’s in the interest of the US and other allies to help with that effort. If Russia’s military isn’t stopped, it will expand beyond Ukraine and drag NATO into war.

“If Russians will win in Ukraine, the United States will pay, not only money to support the allies in Europe, which they must do, but also they will pay for the lives of their soldiers,” he said.

Grabskyi emphasized that Ukrainians haven’t asked for anyone to fight for them. He said they just need the means to defend themselves.

“Our guys are exhausted, our guys are tired. I am talking about all of them, commanders, officers, soldiers,” he said. “But, literally, no one is saying we will give up and withdraw just to leave our country. No way. We will continue our battle. Ukraine will resist until the last soldier will fall.”