Opinion: Why sanctions aren’t the answer for Iran

With every passing day, Iran is effectively removing any lingering doubts over the intentions of its nuclear program. Now, how could there be a clearer case for imposing harsh new sanctions?

For anyone who remained unconvinced that Iran was intent on building a nuclear weapon, the disclosure in September that the regime was building a secret, underground nuclear development base provided prima facie evidence. Now, as Iran backpedals from the agreement it made this month to ship enriched uranium abroad for processing, should there be any remaining doubt? From the beginning of its term, the Obama administration has insisted that if Iran did not respond to diplomatic entreaties, sanctions are the next step.

But then, Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, declared after a meeting with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton that tough sanctions would be “counter-productive.”

The very next day, Iran’s first vice president, Mohammed Rez Rahimi, paid an official visit to Beijing, and Premier Wen Jiabao offered warm compliments, saying China “will maintain high-level exchanges with Iran, enhance mutual understanding and trust” and “coordinate closely on international affairs.” Does that sound like a nation ready to impose painful new sanctions?

Three times, the United States and its western allies on the United Nations Security Council have brought tough sanctions to the table only to find that China and Russia would not vote to approve them until they were so watered down that they had little if any effect. Soon the West will gear up for a fourth attempt.

The best advice: Don’t even try. Russia and China are already saying they won’t go along with it. Another attempt would once again turn into another display of western impotence. And if you look at this problem from China’s and Russia’s points of view — an exercise seldom undertaken in the West — how could you expect anything different?

Staring China and Russia in the face are the Qom nuclear plant disclosure, the stolen election last June, President Mahmoud Ahmadinijad’s latest pronouncement calling the Nazi Holocuast “a lie,” the show trials of demonstrators and the recent decision to condemn three of them to death by hanging.

No, most of that is not related to the nuclear program, but all of it does show just what sort of state Iran really is. The trouble is, China is a communist dictatorship that can be just as venal and barbarous. The Soviet Union was at least as bad, and Russia today, a putative democracy, is still guilty of untoward brutality. Much of what the West finds appalling in Iran’s behavior, Chinese and Russian leaders probably regard with sympathetic understanding. Who can forget the Soviet invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968 — or the how China crushed the Tiananmen Square protests of 1989? So Russian and Chinese leaders probably shake their heads with bemused smiles on their faces as they listen to American leaders complain about Iranian actions.

Sympathetic understanding isn’t the only problem. Both Russia and China would have a great deal to lose if they turned tough on Iran. China is by far Iran’s largest trading partner; China exports $13.3 billion worth of goods and services to Iran each year, particularly refined gasoline and weapons, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. Iran exports $18.5 billion worth of goods to China, most of it oil. China gets about 14 percent of its oil from Iran, and with Chinese demand galloping forward hour by hour, Beijing can ill-afford to lose such an important supplier.

Russia, too, sells sophisticated arms and munitions to Iran worth billions of dollars; the exact number is not known. It sells Iran nuclear technology for civilian power plants and has purchased lucrative oil and gas exploration and production contracts. Russia also agreed to accept those shipments of enriched uranium that are to be turned into civilian reactor fuel, bolstering its friendship with Iran — though Iran now says the deal is off.

More than commercial services assure that Iran and Russia will not cooperate. Both of them view the United States with competitive skepticism. Neither of them share America’s blighted history with Iran — nor its ardor to bring Iran into compliance with international rules.

If China agreed to impose harsh sanctions on Iran, who would be the real winner? The United States. Analysts worldwide would proclaim Obama’s diplomatic genius. And in some respects, at least, China probably appreciates Iran’s direct challenge to American dominance in the Middle East — even while sharing western concern about the spread of nuclear weapons. All of that is also true for Russia which, given the history of the last century, holds an even darker view of Washington.

If the Obama administration and its allies propose another round of punitive sanctions, they will be playing into Russia’s and China’s hands. Don’t do it.