What a loss for Netanyahu would mean for Israeli settlers

JERUSALEM — On the eve of the Israeli election, when it seemed that political power might be about to slip through his fingers, incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that he would build thousands of settler homes in Arab East Jerusalem if he were re-elected.

Speaking at the contested Har Homa settlement neighborhood in East Jerusalem, he pledged never to allow the Palestinians to establish their capital in the eastern part of the city — which is considered occupied land by the international community — and referred to Jerusalem as “our eternal capital.”

The pledge was a last-ditch attempt to galvanize his right-wing base, and a nod to the settler community, to whom Netanyahu has long been a friend. But just how much of an impact will they have on this election?

In Israel, “settlements” are communities built on land that Israel occupied during the Arab-Israeli war in 1967. At present there are settlements in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. They are considered illegal by the international community.

Since Netanyahu took office in 2009, the number of settlers in the West Bank grew from 290,000 to 385,000. Settlements are built on land upon which Palestinians hope to build their future state, and so Palestinians contend that settlement building is a direct attempt to block such an outcome.

More from GlobalPost: Will Arab parties become the new kingmakers in Israel?

Settler communities have historically played a prominent role in politics. But with Netanyahu’s recent decline at the polls and the possibility of a more left-leaning government taking power, their influence may soon be curtailed.

Dani Dayan, the former head and now chief foreign envoy of the Yesha Council, a settlers’ umbrella organization, acknowledges that his leverage over government policy “will decrease no doubt” if the Zionist Union led by Isaac Herzog and Tzipi Livni replace Netanyahu’s Likud party.

Though he says he has “very cordial relations” with Isaac Herzog, when it comes to Herzog's running mate Tzipi Livni he is less sanguine.

“There’s no doubt that she radiates more hostility towards us than most other Israeli politicians.”

The settlers have always had an outsized influence in Israeli politics, says Dayan.

“We are a sector of the Israeli population much more involved in politics than the average, therefore also our leverage is somewhat stronger,” he says. “I would say that leverage is multiplying numbers by commitment, and we are very committed.” He remarked that about 10 percent of the outgoing Knesset, Israel's parliament, lives in settlements.

He attributes the levels of political engagement to the fact that the settlers’ project is an “ideological issue,” which is namely to make sure that the ”heartland of the land of Israel remains in Israeli hands.”

More from GlobalPost: What do Israeli voters say about Gaza? 

High turnouts among settlers, particularly in Israel’s primary elections, have served to bolster the right wing within the Likud party over the years and push out moderates.

As a significant political force, politicians give them their due.

Netanyahu, a member of the Likud party, alienated much of the youth vote by building housing units in the settlements while young people struggle to afford housing inside Israeli borders.

The issue of settlers was a sticking point in the most recent attempt to restart the flagging Israeli-Palestinian peace process when Netanyahu refused to stop settlement building during talks.

Dayan is unconcerned, however.

“The conflict does not have a solution,” he states matter-of-factly — a position he is trying to advocate, he says, at the US State Department and the White House.

Netanyahu appears to agree. In an interview with Israeli news website NRG, hours before the polls opened, he said: “I think that anyone who moves to establish a Palestinian state today, and evacuate areas, is giving radical Islam an area from which to attack the State of Israel.” 

He confirmed that a Palestinian state would not be created with him in power.