Mozambique could elect ‘Rambo’ as the country’s next president this week

MAPUTO, Mozambique — Meet the Rambo of Mozambique, an aging rebel who has captured the imagination of this booming country’s frustrated youth.

As of last month, Afonso Dhlakama was still hiding deep in the forested Gorongosa hills of central Mozambique, waging a two-year insurgency against the government. He and other civil war-era guerillas launched attacks that killed police, soldiers and civilians, and targeted important north-south infrastructure.

Now, Dhlakama’s grinning face is plastered on election posters around the country. He is receiving a hero’s welcome on the campaign trail as he runs for the presidency yet again as leader of Renamo, the former rebel group turned main opposition party.

It all sounds strange, but the past looms large in Mozambique, a former Portuguese colony in southern Africa. Mozambique suffered terribly during a 20-year civil war between Frelimo, the liberation party that still governs today, and Renamo, a rebel group backed first by neighboring Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe) and then by apartheid South Africa.

But the country is changing rapidly, and a new generation may have an unexpected impact on this election.

Dhlakama, 61, returned to the bush two decades after a 1992 peace agreement ended the civil war, accusing the government of breaking the deal and complaining of an unfair concentration of power in Frelimo’s hands.

Mozambique has one of the fastest economic growth rates in the world thanks to oil, gas and coal discoveries in the far north. It is one of the world’s poorest countries, yet economic growth has raced ahead at 8 percent for the past 15 years.

But the big challenge for Mozambique is translating this growth into development. While the capital, Maputo, is booming, the rest of the country has seen little change and there is a growing resentment among the younger generation.

Elisabete Azevedo-Harman, a researcher with London-based Chatham House who is in Mozambique for the elections, described a yawning gap between older Mozambicans and youth who don’t remember the civil war.

They are more concerned with finding a job and affordable housing.

“If you’re 20 years old, the civil war doesn’t say anything to you,” Azevedo-Harman said.

The election campaign has largely been peaceful, barring a few incidents involving Frelimo and the Mozambique Democratic Movement (MDM), a second opposition party. The MDM did surprisingly well in 2013 municipal elections, drawing support from the young and disaffected, and winning control of Nampula, capital of the north. They were also helped by Renamo sitting out that election.

“We have a new generation of Mozambicans who were not involved in independence,” said Lutero Simango, the MDM’s chief whip and brother of its leader Daviz Simango. “We are focusing on the present and the future. We don't go for the past.”

But political leaders and observers are warning of the potential for violence after the polls close.

“What happens if Renamo falls to third place? These guys could go back to the bush, and there could be sporadic clashes,” a Western diplomat said.

Azevedo-Harman said she is worried not just about the losers but also how the winners will react if they don’t do as well as expected.

The country’s current president, Armando Guebuza, is stepping down after reaching his two-term limit. He is succeeded as Frelimo candidate by Felipe Nyusi, a former defence minister who is considered a political unknown, though still widely expected to dominate.

Some say Dhlakama has received an unexpected boost in popularity from his time roughing it in the wilds of Gorongosa. A charismatic leader, at campaign events he has been deluged by supporters who flood onto airport tarmacs to greet him.

Eduardo Namburete, a leader of Renamo, said young Mozambicans are curious about Dhlakama, thanks in part to the intense media attention during the past two years, in addition to his civil war-era reputation.

“They are admiring of him — his military strategy, taking on the army. This, for young people, is very exciting. He is the Rambo,” Namburete said.

"What a comeback," said Adriano Nuvunga, director of the Centre for Public Integrity, an independent anti-corruption group. "People are cheering him as a hero, not as a bandit."

Azevedo-Harman described a growing “hero mythology” around Dhlakama. The question is whether this will turn into votes on election day.

Namburete, who in addition to his work with Renamo also teaches media studies at a Maputo university, said the history of civil war continues to dominate discourse in Mozambique.

“Even thought it has been 20 years, the situation remains the same. Renamo still has weapons, Frelimo still has weapons. War is still a way of bringing consensus in Mozmabique. We have not had a reconciliation process,” he said.

“We just sit and pretend nothing happened. That is a very bad way of solving problems. The problem is just sleeping. Someday it will wake up.”