The familiar roots of Tunisia’s terror problem

JERUSALEM — Tunisia had a terrorism problem under autocratic leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The pervading logic then was that it was fueled by his harsh crackdowns and persecution of Islamists. The problem though persisted under the Islamist government that replaced him after the country’s 2011 revolution. This time it was blamed on the government being too lenient.

Both narratives are true to an extent — but there are constants at play in Tunisia that offer a greater understanding of why this burgeoning democracy faces such a threat from terrorism. Simply put, Tunisia still has a large underclass that struggles to find jobs, and it still lives in a bad neighborhood.

On Wednesday, gunmen opened fire on a group of tourists in front of the Bardo Museum in the capital, Tunis, killing 23 people. Three of them were Tunisian, the others were European, Japanese and Colombian nationals. Dozens were injured.

The Tunisian authorities have apprehended nine people in connection with the attack. Security forces shot two gunmen when they stormed the museum. The authorities said both of them had fought in Libya. One of them was Yassine Laabidi. It was there, a friend of Laabidi’s told the BBC, that he became radicalized.

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for the attack in a message posted on Twitter. But the Tunisian government said the suspects had no apparent links to any known terrorist groups and analysts say the attack was more likely carried out by a local extremist cell that shares the IS ideology.

"I think (the Islamic State) is probably taking credit for something it may not have played a role in," said Geoff Porter, a security analyst for North Africa told the Associated Press.

The threat posed by terrorists in Tunisia has been growing for awhile. Analysts estimate that about 3,000 Tunisians have traveled to Syria to fight in the country’s civil war — that’s more than any other country — despite having a population of only 10 million.

BLAME BEN ALI

For years under the Ben Ali regime, Tunisian Islamists were implicitly encouraged to go to other countries to fight, rather than create unrest on Tunisian soil. Religious Tunisians were often persecuted and sometimes rounded up and tortured by the government. The repression and brutality of the Ben Ali regime caused some to turn to radicalism.

BLAME THE ISLAMISTS

With these conditions creating a fertile breeding ground for extremists, the new freedoms won by the 2011 revolution allowed the ideas associated with them to flourish.

When the Ennahdha party, the Tunisian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, came to power following the revolution, they made concessions to the more right wing religious voices both within their party and outside of it.

Extremist views were openly broadcast in mosques across the country. When Ennahdha began to crackdown on the Tunisian extremists in the wake of the assassination of several secular political figures, many called their efforts “too little too late.”

Then things took on a more familiar pattern. In the absence of police reform, Tunisia saw a return to the brutality and repression that marked the Ben Ali government. Many believe this has only increased the radicalization of some Tunisians.

BLAME THE LOUD NEIGHBORS

While both of those narratives are partly true, Tunisia can't escape the fact that — for all of its progress in forming a government, drafting a constitution and holding elections — it is situated in a part of the world racked with conflict.

Libya is on Tunisia’s eastern border. It is essentially a failed state at this point, descending into chaotic power vacuum after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi. It has since become a haven for terrorist groups, which operate training camps all across the country. Though the exact number is unknown, many Tunisian fighters have crossed the border for training and crossed back again. Meanwhile, to the west, Tunisian security forces have been clashing with militants, both Tunisian and Algerian, on Mount Chaambi on the Algerian border.

With neighbors like these, coupled with growing exposure to global terrorist networks on internet (a problem the whole world faces), an increase in extremist activity is not all that surprising.

BUT REALLY, IT'S THE SAME OLD PROBLEMS

Then there are Tunisia’s more traditional problems.

When would-be terrorists are asked why they would choose to fight abroad or join extremist groups, most cite a lack of economic opportunities. It's the same reasons that led Tunisian Mohamed Bouazizi to set himself on fire, launching the Arab Spring.

Yet when Tunisia's president talks about the country's response to this week's terror attack, addressing the economy has yet to come up. Instead, President Beji Caid Essebsi said his country was "in a war with terror."

"These monstrous minorities do not frighten us," he said on national TV. "We will resist them until the deepest end without mercy."