What does the halting of a recent shipment of US weapons to Israel mean for the war in Gaza?
The US confirmed that it had paused a recent shipment of weapons to Israel. To discuss what that means in the wider scope of the war in Gaza, The World’s host Marco Werman speaks with Brian Finucane, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
Austin told lawmakers that the White House decided to halt delivery of “high payload munitions” due to concerns that the weapons might be used in a major assault on Rafah, where more than 1 million Gazans have sought safety.
To discuss the implications of the decision, The World’s host Marco Werman spoke with Brian Finucane, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group.
Marco Werman: Give us some more details on why the White House delayed this specific shipment of weapons.
Brian Finucane: Particularly with these 2,000-pound bombs, given the blast radius from these weapons and the amount of damage they’re capable of causing, the administration seemed to regard them as being particularly inappropriate for any operations in Rafah. The administration, on background yesterday, characterized this as a shot across the bow, and also indicated that it did not anticipate this had any immediate operational impact on Israeli activity in Gaza. So, this is a notable and long overdue step. But we’ll see. I mean, we’ll see whether this is the only step or whether the administration takes further steps, particularly if Israel moves forward with further operations in Rafah without an adequate plan to protect civilians. And I just say that it’s hard to vision what such a plan would look like, given the number of civilians at issue here.
Right. Meanwhile, it’s our understanding that other US arms shipments to Israel do continue, correct?
Absolutely. And it’s useful to put this in context of the United States providing a tremendous amount of weaponry to Israel and including since October. And so, there’s been tenuous flow of US weapons, tank shells, artillery shells, thousands of air delivery munitions, being shipped both in United States, but also from a storehouse within Israel itself. And in contrast to arms transfers to Ukraine, for example, there’s relatively little transparency on the exact types and quantities being transferred. The administration is not issuing fact sheets on a regular basis the way it does for Ukraine.
So, you call this a shot across the bow to Israel. But how surprising is this sort of pause in weapons shipments to Israel really? Has it happened before?
It certainly has happened before. And in some ways it’s surprising it hasn’t happened before now with this administration. So, going back to the Reagan administration, President [Ronald] Reagan paused the transfer of cluster munitions to Israel when the US government concluded that Israel was using such weapons to attack civilians in Lebanon. The Obama administration paused transfers of precision guided bombs to Saudi Arabia after it came to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia was using those weapons to attack civilians in Yemen. And the Biden administration, itself, paused offensive weapons transfers to Saudi Arabia in 2021 upon taking office due to concerns that US weapons were being used to attack civilians.
I mean, it’s hard to tease out, isn’t it, to what extent the delay of one arms shipment was a move designed for a domestic audience? I mean, here in the US, Biden does seem concerned about what protests on college campuses say about his approach to Israel’s war.
It is a very modest step, and certainly there are those even within the Democrat Party on the Hill calling for much more. And I think it’s worth recognizing that there are conditions in US law, in the policies implemented by the administration itself, that apply to arms transfers and military assistance to all states, not just Israel. But those standards have not been enforced. Those conditions have not been enforced since October.
To that point, today the State Department was slated to issue a report on whether Israel has violated US and international humanitarian law during the war in Gaza. If the report found that Israel had in fact committed violations, the US would be expected to stop sending Israel weapons. But that report, we learn, has been now delayed. When do you expect it will come out? And what’s your sense of what’s likely to be in it?
I expect that the conclusions of this report to be pretty watered down. And I don’t think it’s going to be, you know, presenting the administration with inconvenient conclusions or inconvenient facts. In terms of the timing, I wouldn’t read too much into the delay. It could be a few days. I’ve dealt with congressional reports that were years late. But certainly this one, given what we’re seeing on the ground in Gaza, is subject to heightened scrutiny.
Do you have any insight, Brian, into how the US and the White House are looking at possible criminal intent committed by IDF soldiers in Gaza?
Well, it seems that they’re trying not to, as a matter of fact. There have been various statements since October about the degree to which the US government is scrutinizing, or not scrutinizing, the conduct of the IDF [Israel Defense Force] in Gaza with respect to law of war compliance. My impression from my conversations I’ve had with people in the administration is that there is some sort of assessment going on, but it is not with a view to assessing whether there are war crimes being committed, or whether IDF soldiers or leaders have criminal intent. And indeed, we’ve seen some pushback by the administration with respect to rumors that the International Criminal Court may be considering arrest warrants for Israeli leaders and the administration taking the position that the International Criminal Court lacks jurisdiction with respect to Israeli personnel.
This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.
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