Ceasefire negotiations aimed at putting a stop to the Israel-Hamas war have dragged on for months.
At times, US officials have expressed optimism about being close to a deal, but they’ve consistently failed to reach the finish line.
Now, things are different.
The Biden administration is flooding the zone in the Middle East with high-level diplomats ahead of a key meeting on Thursday. Getting a ceasefire in Gaza is the immediate goal. But this is also about bringing down the temperature in a region that’s on edge after the assassination late last month of two top leaders, one from Hezbollah and the other with Hamas.
Israel has been anxiously waiting to see what sort of retaliation Iran and its regional proxies might unleash against the Jewish state. And the US wants to prevent a wider regional war.
“This is the first time that I’m aware that the US has ever put in writing that it was going to put forward a bridging proposal if the parties couldn’t reach an agreement,” said David Makovsky, with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
He said the idea is to bridge the gaps between the different sides and that many of these details would be worked out behind closed doors.
But Makovsky reckons, for example, that US officials are talking about how Israeli hostages would be released in phases. The Israelis also want to know if the US would support them if they see the need to resume military operations in Gaza.
Egypt is concerned about how security along the Gaza-Egypt border will work.
And for its part, Hamas is seeking assurances about Palestinian prisoners who’d be freed from Israeli jails.
“You’re trying to minimize the risk to the parties, basically. That’s what this is all about,” Makovsky said.
There’s concern in Washington about saving the remaining hostages in Gaza, he said.
And another thing adding to the sense of urgency for the Biden administration: “We’re entering into a political season. We’re kind of already in it. The Democratic convention is next week, and then, there’s the general election,” Makovsky said. “And there’s a question of what high-level attention could be given at the height of a political campaign.”
He said the meeting on Thursday could produce a ceasefire deal.
But that would only be a starting point because implementing whatever is decided will be complex, and the risks are high.
“If there is really one word to describe the Biden strategy vis-a-vis Gaza, it’s failure. Failure to achieve a ceasefire. Failure to prevent further escalation in the region,” said Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations and Middle East politics at the London School of Economics.
Gerges said the Biden administration is going for broke, pushing hard for negotiators to reach a deal on Thursday. But he’s skeptical that a breakthrough is possible, primarily because of the position of the Israeli prime minister.
“The Americans know that Benjamin Netanyahu has been playing for time. We need to listen to Benjamin Netanyahu,” Gerges said. “He wants total victory. He does not really want to end the war. He wants just a partial ceasefire.”
“Even Israel’s security officials and defense minister — they have come to believe that Benjamin Netanyahu does not really want the war to end.”
Biden has not used important US leverage to get Israel’s prime minister to accept a ceasefire in Gaza, he added.
An example of this came on Tuesday when the State Department announced $20 billion in weapons sales for Israel.
But this is an unprecedented moment in the Middle East, said Suzanne Maloney. She’s an Iran expert, and the vice president and director of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
One turning point came in mid-April when Iran attacked Israel directly. And then, another was one last month, when Israel allegedly killed a top Hamas leader during a visit to the Iranian capital.
“What we’ve seen since the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, attributed to Israel, is that there is a new escalation,” Maloney said. “I think there are genuine concerns that if we see another volley between the two parties, we may not be able to control the outcome.”
She added that it’s hard to say how Iran might retaliate.
In anticipation of what could come next, the Pentagon has already deployed a range of military forces to the region, including a guided missile submarine.
And with ceasefire negotiations happening on Aug. 15 in Doha, Qatar, Maloney said the success in those talks could go a long way to reducing tensions across the Middle East.
“The entire edifice of American diplomacy, over the course of the last 10 months, really does rest upon the need to achieve a ceasefire. The ability to prevent the war from expanding in a more significant way, into Lebanon or elsewhere in the region,” she said. “All of it rests on getting a ceasefire in Gaza.”