US has limited leverage in pushing for ceasefire to end Israel-Hamas war, analyst says

Steven Cook: Already, [Iran’s Supreme Leader] Ayatollah [Ali] Khamenei has vowed revenge on the Israelis, and the Iranians sit atop what’s called the “axis of resistance,” which has been basically firing on the Israelis since October of 2023. So, now they have even more motivation. And the Israelis are basically pushing out their chest and saying, “We’re not afraid.” So, I think there’s a very significant escalation risk. And there will be attacks on the Israelis from multiple directions.

I think it’s clear that the negotiations, as we know them to be, were essentially a ruse. The Israelis have stuck to their overall strategic goal, which is the destruction of Hamas. And the Hamas leadership in Gaza, specifically in the name of Yahya Sinwar, believed that he was winning the conflict because he sees it as a total conflict. And dragging the Israelis into a grinding conflict in the Gaza Strip that undermined Israel’s international standing was all positive from the perspective of Sinwar and the Israelis who believe that their military pressure has begun to weaken Hamas. So, I think that the idea that there [would] be these ceasefire negotiations, they’ve dragged on for months with no conclusion. And that’s because the critical political actors in this conflict don’t want one.

Right. That’s exactly the case, though, there is now going to be escalation as a result of the killing of Haniyeh.

Look, there was a dramatic meeting last week between [US] Vice President [Kamala Harris] and [Israeli] Prime Minister Netanyahu in which, at the end, she said, it’s time to get the war over with, sign the ceasefire. And this is the Israelis’ answer: We, too, are interested in ending this war, but we’re going to do it on our terms. And essentially, by doing this, Israelis are jamming the United States. If you remember, in Netanyahu’s address to a joint session of Congress, he made the very strong case that Israel’s enemies are the US’s enemies. That is specifically the Iranians, as well as its “axis of evil.” So, I think it’s going to be hard for the United States to distance itself from the Israelis on this, despite the fact that across the board, officials in Washington are quite concerned about an intensification of the regional conflict that’s already underway.

I don’t think the United States has much leverage at all for two reasons: One, the Israelis define this conflict as an existential one. So, no matter how important the United States is to Israel when the Israelis believe that they’re fighting for their lives, there’s very little that the United States can do or little influence the United States can bring to bear to shape how they try to save themselves. Secondly, I think this whole idea of leverage is sort of half-baked. You only have leverage if you’re willing to use it. And the United States isn’t willing to use it because we don’t know what the answer is once we use it. It’s a single bullet in the chamber. So, if the United States were to say, “We’re halting all military aid to Israel over the conduct of the war in the Gaza Strip,” for example, and the Israelis continue to fight in the Gaza Strip as they see fit, it demonstrates the profound weakness of the United States and, in fact, that it doesn’t have leverage.