US and Russia complete biggest prisoner swap in post-Soviet history

Daniel Ofman: We’ve learned that this was a complex exchange that involved the US, Germany and Russia, other European countries as well. And during the press conference earlier today, Biden shared a couple more details about the exchange.

So, the families of those Americans freed in the deal stood at Biden’s side during the press conference. And in the days leading up to the swap, there was a lot of speculation that something was in the works. Prisoners in Russia were being moved. Analysts began tracking flight data online. And finally, we saw images of Russian planes landing in Turkey. We’re still learning more about what went into reaching this deal, but we can say that this is already a major diplomatic achievement.

So, these individuals are journalists, anti-war activists and opposition politicians. Perhaps the most well-known among them is Evan Gershkovich, a reporter with the Wall Street Journal. He was detained in Russia in March of last year, and was sentenced last month to a 16-year prison term based on trumped-up espionage charges. So, since his detention, there’s been a major campaign from the Wall Street Journal, with his family and friends all advocating for his release. And another US citizen who was released today is former Marine Paul Whelan. He was detained in 2018, and the US has designated both Whelan and Gershkovich as wrongfully detained. And another American journalist released today is also Alsu Kurmasheva, who’s been in Russian jail since June of last year. So, those are the three Americans who were released. But there are also many Russians who are released today as well.

So, one of them is opposition politician Vladimir Kara-Murza. He also holds a US green card. He’s someone who’s spoken out publicly against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including on our program. The Kremlin saw him as an enemy. And on two occasions, Kara-Murza was poisoned. So, that was back in 2015 and 2017. But even after those poisonings, he kept traveling back to Russia. And he would often say that he’s a Russian politician, and therefore, he had to be in Russia in order to represent his people despite all the risks. So, aside from Kara-Murza, there are other Russian dissidents who were also freed today, including Ilya Yashin, Oleg Orlov, Lilia Chanysheva and some others. These are all people well-known inside of Russia as human rights defenders, pro-democracy activists and politicians.

So, there’s a list of eight adults who have been released. They’re all individuals who’ve been convicted in the US or in Europe for crimes like murder, espionage and cybercrimes. And perhaps the most noteworthy Russian citizen among them who’s been released is Vadim Krasikov, an assassin working with Russia’s Federal Security Service. Krasikov was convicted in Germany for murdering a Chechen dissident in 2019. For years, Germany was reluctant to include Krasikov in a swap like this one because of the nature of his crime. However, likely because of US pressure and perhaps some other incentives, they’ve agreed to the swap. And it’s worth mentioning that in an interview back in February, Putin referred to Krasikov as a patriot and mentioned him within the context of a potential swap.

So, from the Biden administration’s perspective, they’ve said a bunch of times that returning Americans imprisoned abroad on false charges is a priority, no matter where they are, Russia or otherwise. And this deal is them following through on that commitment. Now, from Putin’s perspective, there are a few other messages that he could be sending here.

Well, perhaps the Kremlin sees this as an opportunity to show that it’s a willing negotiating partner, and that these types of negotiations could lead to some impressive results. This outcome potentially opens the door to more negotiations on other significant issues, like the war in Ukraine. And another rationale for Moscow is to show members of its security services that the Kremlin will go above and beyond to bring its people back home. And the idea is to reinforce loyalty among the security services and encourage other people to fall into line with the Kremlin’s agenda.