Opinion: Burundi’s elections a test

BUJUMBURA, Burundi — Five elections in five months would put a lot of strain on any country, let alone one of the world’s youngest and most fragile democracies, its nerves still raw from a 12-year civil war that claimed up to 300,000 lives.

But so is the card war-torn Burundi has dealt itself, and as unlucky as it would seem, it also has the power to solidify the former Belgian colony’s transition to democracy.

That scenario, however, looks unlikely following communal elections May 24. European Union observers hailed them a success. But five opposition parties said the landslide victory for the ruling Defense of Democracy-Forces for the Defense of Democracy (CNDD-FDD) involved massive fraud, voter intimidation and restrictions of opposition activities.

Thirteen opposition parties have since pulled out of presidential elections slated for June 28, leaving only incumbent Pierre Nkurunziza of CNDD-FDD in the running. On June 12, four grenade blasts injuring seven were reported, and 24 CNDD-FDD offices were torched.

Political rallies have been banned, and there has been talk of arresting two main opposition leaders on the grounds that they are threatening security.

“Burundi is facing a serious crisis,” that could endanger national stability, said Fabien Nsengimana, program coordinator of the Burundi Leadership Training Program.

And that could negatively influence the Central African region more broadly. Indeed events in this tiny country have at various times strongly impacted events elsewhere. Burundi has served as a crossroads for illegal arms and a floodgate of refugees. It  even inadvertently helped trigger the 1994 Rwandan genocide, with strife between Hutus and Tutsis igniting tensions across the border.

With three other east African nations — Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda — scheduled to hit the polls in the next eight months, it was hoped that this time around Burundi could set a positive precedent.

That could still happen but at a minimum would likely need to see opposition parties participating in the presidential elections. Youth wings of major political parties clashed in the streets on several occasions leading up to communal elections, and they are showing signs of unrest once more, with rural supporters of CNDD-FDD’s main political rival, the National Forces of Liberation (FNL), confronting police outside the home of the party’s former rebel leader Agathon Rwasa, according to Pacifique Nininahazwe, president of the civil society group Forum pour le Renforcement de la Société Civile, FORSC.

The opposition is demanding a recount and the sacking of key members of the electoral commission, CENI, as a prerequisite to participating in the presidential elections. CNDD-FDD accuses opposition parties of inciting unrest but has refused to meet their demands.

Some observers suspect that the opposition’s claim that the elections were rigged is insincere, or it would filed legal proceedings. They say their boycott is intended to galvanize support by creating the impression that the ruling CNDD-FDD is undermining democracy. Communal elections here typically weigh heavily on the outcome of presidential elections.

Political strife has traditionally cut along ethnic lines, pitting the majority Hutus against the minority Tutsis. But a power-sharing agreement introduced in 2001, known as the Arusha Accords, called for political quotas and has been pivotal in dispelling ethnic tensions by creating quotas for the main groups. Today four of the 12 ministers of Nkurunziza — himself a Hutu — are Tutsi, and most of the major rivaling political parties are Hutu-based.

But Nininahazwe, head of CENI, suspects that race could rear its ugly head once more if the opposition extends its boycott to the parliamentary elections, slated for August, in which case the parliament could become lopsidedly CNDD-FDD to the point that they could revoke the Arusha Accords.

“The ruling party will have the power alone to change the constitution, a constitution which is a result of long political negotiations in Arusha — a constitution which successfully shares power between the ethnic groups and minimizes certain negative political tendencies,” said Nininahazwe.

It’s perhaps worth noting that the civil war got underway after the country’s first multiparty elections following independence.

Chances of political tensions turning racial, though, are lessened by the fact that most political leaders and Burundians themselves are too traumatized and worn out by the past to readopt its political dynamics.

And besides, most frustration among everyday Burundians today takes aim at the general state of things. Unemployment is high. Youth lack requisite skills. Land is scarce and growing scarcer in a country where most people depend on subsistence farming for survival.

The president, Nkurunziza, has implemented free primary school education and free health care to pregnant mothers and children under five since he was elected in 2005. But a shortage of resources, including qualified doctors and teachers, has hindered the efforts. Corruption has reportedly worsened during Nkurunziza’s first term. But as many of the country’s prospective leaders are former guerilla fighters, the country lacks real political expertise.

It is hoped that Burundi’s socio-economic prospects improve when the East African Community adopts a common market later this month. But Burundi will need to show it can hold legitimate participatory elections first.