Santos’ second term brings continued economic growth for Colombia

BOGOTA, Colombia — Colombia beat Greece 3-0 in its first World Cup Soccer Match, but the biggest contest for the Colombian people ended as Juan Manuel Santos survived a run-off election against Oscar Iván Zuluaga to remain president for four more years.

Santos won approximately 51 percent of the vote while Zuluaga came in second place with about 45 percent. The “third candidate,” an option to vote for “no one,” drew slightly more than 4 percent.

These elections were framed by economic development, social inclusion, international relations, the military’s role in society and the choice between war and peace.

Santos’s reelection bodes well for the peace process. Peace negotiations have been underway with the FARC in Havana, Cuba since 2012 and active negotiations with the National Liberation Army (ELN) were announced just five days before the election. While nearly every political party and politician uses the internal armed conflict as political fodder, this is the first time a negotiated peace seems possible, finally placing the emphasis on victims’ rights.

However, two additional issues are sticking points: amnesty for crimes such as massacres, kidnapping, drug trafficking and acts of terrorism and the legitimate participation of former guerrillas in the Colombian political system.

Zuluaga, a protégé of former president Álvaro Uribe, wanted to return to Uribe’s search-and destroy, anti-guerrilla strategies, which most Colombians will say were successful.

Uribe significantly weakened the guerrilla groups and he succeeded in demobilizing the most powerful paramilitary organizations. Homicide and kidnapping rates fell significantly, and Colombia is now in a different time and place. To pass on the chance for real peace would be irresponsible because Colombia has so much to gain.

Colombia has made remarkable progress. The country is more stable and more secure, especially in the major cities. It is now possible to travel with relative security from city to city by car or bus, and Colombians and foreign tourists are doing so with increasing frequency. Tourism is starting to take off, especially tourists from Europe.

According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, the national per capita homicide rate in 2000 was 66.5 per 100,000. In 2012, the rate had dropped to 30.8 per 100,000. The 2005 Failed States Index (now the Fragile States Index) ranked Colombia the 14th most failed state. Last year, Columbia ranked 57th, showing a significant improvement.

The cities of Bogotá, Medellin, Cali, and Cartagena are relatively safe, as long as common sense precautions are followed. Bogotá, the capital city of 8 million habitants, has a homicide rate of 17 per 100,000 persons. It is not even in the top 50 most murderous cities in the world while four US cities have much higher per capital murder rates: Detroit (47 per), New Orleans (45 per), Baltimore (38 per), and St. Louis (34 per).

Nonetheless, violence prevails in several regions, one of the reasons Colombia remains on the US State Department’s Travel Warning List. Heightened security precautions are recommended in the Pacific Region (Chocó, Valle Del Cauca, Cauca and Nariño), Central Region (Cesar, Antioquia, Santander, Cordoba, the southern area of Bolivar and Norte De Santander) as well as in Putumayo, Caquetá, Meta and Guaviare and rural areas adjacent to the borders with Panama, Venezuela and Ecuador.

Guerrillas, paramilitaries and criminal organizations have displaced nearly five million rural Colombians since 1985. In June 2011, Santos signed the Victims and Land Restitution Law, but progress has been very slow as families face violent reprisals upon returning home to claim their land. Dozens have been killed.

A.T. Kearney’s Global Cities Index 2014, ranks Bogotá as 7th in its Emerging Cities Outlook, which measures the potential of cities in low- and middle-income countries to become more global in the future.

There is a burgeoning middle class in Colombia, and the internal conflict barely registers among urban Colombians under 30. The economy has grown steadily, despite a persistent corruption problem. The IMF estimated Colombia’s GDP per capita to be $2,479 in 2000. For 2013, the IMF estimated $8,098. According to the World Bank’s forecast, only Colombia, among all Latin American countries, will accelerate its growth rate in 2014: from 4.3 percent last year to 4.6 percent.

Interestingly, the 2013 Happy Planet Index, a measure of experienced well being, life expectancy and ecological footprint, ranks Colombia 3rd behind Costa Rica and Vietnam. Colombia drops to 7th when inequality is considered.

Colombia is transforming and the process will accelerate during Santos’ second term and the prospect of a negotiated peace. Serious safety and security concerns remain, but more socioeconomic benefits and more tourists are to be expected under Santos’ leadership.

Vincent T. Gawronski is associate professor of political science at Birmingham-Southern College, Alabama. He is a summer visiting professor at La Universidad de La Salle in Bogotá, Colombia. He can be reached at vgawrons@bsc.edu