What Russia is up to in Syria — and why

Russia is stepping up its military assistance to the regime of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

Speaking Tuesday at a summit of pro-Russian states in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, Russian President Vladimir Putin defended the assistance to Assad. He said it was necessary "to defeat terrorism," and he called on other countries to join in.

The US has expressed concern, with Secretary of State John Kerry calling Moscow after Putin’s comments. It was the third such call from Kerry in 10 days.

The build-up is very real, says Reva Bhalla, vice president of analysis with the geopolitical intelligence corporation, Stratfor. “From the satellite imagery so far,” she says, “we can see that they’re focussing very much at Latakia, in addition to their naval depot at Tartus, building up their assets, preparing essentially to station aerial assets on these bases along the coast. And in Tartus and Latakia that basically means we’re seeing things like newly renovated runways, possible control towers, housing for Russian forces. So nothing indicating that this is a temporary preparation by any means. It seems like Russia is here for the longer haul."

Russia has long sent financial aid and hardware to Damascus. Assad’s Syria has been an ally of Moscow since the Cold War. But there are now reports of military advisers on the ground, and clear preparations for providing close air support.

Bhalla says many observers are concluding that Syria is in danger of breaking up into smaller de facto statelets. Russia is keen to protect its foothold in the Mediterranean, and that means propping up a pro-Assad statelet along the coast, with direct military assistance if necessary.

But there are other motives, says Bhalla. “What Russia is doing is very much related to what is happening in this broader dynamic with the United States, where Russia and the United States are in direct confrontation with each other as the US and NATO are building up assets on Russia’s doorstep, and Russia needs bargaining leverage and Syria is a place they can find that.”