A US intelligence report asserts that China will likely invade Taiwan by 2027. A US Air Force general says that he feels in his “gut” that the invasion will actually happen in 2025, or even “before 2024,” according to a US Navy general. This guessing game is driven by a new Pentagon consensus: Invasion is coming very soon. But this thinking is baffling for veteran China watchers, many of whom feel that these predictions are fraught with real risks. The World’s Patrick Winn reports.