Israel becomes the first nation to recognize Somaliland. Here’s why it’s important.

Omar Mahmood: Somaliland is basically the northern part in the Horn of Africa. Once the government in Somalia collapsed in 1991, Somaliland declared its independence and has gone its own way ever since.

I think there’s always been this idea that support to the Somalia government will lead to a stronger government, and that will lead to eventual negotiations with Somaliland, and this issue will get resolved one way or the other. But the reality is that just really hasn’t happened. Most countries, their attention to this part of the region is more rooted in security concerns, or has been.

I think there’s probably a couple of reasons, and it all relates back to Somaliland’s geo-strategic position. It’s on the Gulf of Aden leading into the Red Sea and essentially across from Yemen. And so, Israel’s had a couple of different conflicts regionally, a couple of different adversaries regionally over the past couple of years, but one of them is the Houthis, which are based in Yemen.

So, having an ally in Somaliland would give them some sort of to operate from. Then, the other side we see now is an increased interest in the wider Red Sea space. We’ve seen increased geopolitical competition in that space, and I think that’s what’s Somaliland’s leverage to get to now to this point of recognition.

Somalia has particularly been quite upset about this. We saw a similar situation a couple years ago where Ethiopia had come to an agreement with Somaliland about potential recognition, and what we saw from Somalia was it went into overdrive diplomatically to condemn that sort of move and put pressure on Ethiopia.

We’re seeing a similar playbook right now. Basically, the reaction has either been very strongly in line with Somalia — that’s Djibouti has been in Eritrea has been there — or been one where actors have been waiting and seeing how this all plays out, and they haven’t really taken such a strong position just yet.

Essentially, what this does is, the Somalia-Somaliland dispute is a local issue that’s been elevated to a regional, if not international, stage at this point. The concern, though, is that that hardens positions rather than ever getting to a position where Somalia and Somaliland could dialog if they have all these outside actors lining up on one side or the other. It divides the region and allows the local actors to take more stronger, uncompromising positions.

The point of joining the Abraham Accords is probably twofold. One, there are a number of countries that are already part of that, that then Israel could lobby them, as well, to have relations with Somaliland. They’re all kind of maybe part of this similar bloc. The second part is, of course, the US administration, the Trump administration is fond of the Abraham Accords. They want to expand it. And so, I think it’s a way for Somaliland to also attract US attention.

The US has traditionally had an almost unspoken one Somalia policy, which means that they engage in Somaliland, of course, but not to the point of recognition. A lot of what their support has been to Somalia has been run through the government in Mogadishu and most of this has been tied to counterterrorism concerns.

That’s been the status quo, and where the push has come has been more from some Republican lawmakers who have picked up the Somaliland cause and have seen it kind of in that light that it makes more sense for US interests to gravitate toward Somaliland. Part of this is also frustration with Somalia and the government in Mogadishu. The fight against Al-Shabaab drags on. And so, I think that status quo mentality is more or less there, but it’s been increasingly challenged.

There’s been a lot of outpouring of support for this recognition bid. They argue that their lack of recognition cuts them off from international financial markets, puts them in a precarious position, and inhibits international development in these types of programs. I mean, you do have a segment within, kind of, diaspora Somalilanders who still do believe in union with Somalia.

But I’d say the majority of the population is young, has grown up since 1991, has never really known the union, but the question then comes to more practically just a resolution of the issue one way or the other so they can also kind of get on with their lives. Otherwise, you’re kind of always trapped in limbo.