In global electricity mix, renewables overtake coal for the first time
A new report from the climate think tank Ember finds that renewable energy sources made up more of the global electricity mix than coal for the first half of 2025. Host Marco Werman speaks with Ember global program director Raul Miranda about what drove this change.
The Big Fix
Updated:
7:14
Wind turbines turn behind a solar farm in Rapshagen, Germany, Oct. 28, 2021.
Michael Sohn/AP/File
Solar power is renewable, cheap and more popular than ever.
So much so, that solar appears to be reshaping the global energy mix. New research from the energy think tank Ember, finds renewable sources of energy, primarily solar, now generate more electricity, globally, than coal.
“For more than a century, coal and gas were the backbone of progress, they powered industries and cities,” said Raul Miranda, global program director at Ember. “But now, for the first time since the industrial revolution, the growth of electricity is coming from clean sources instead of fossil ones.”
Miranda spoke with The World’s Host Marco Werman about what’s driving the change, for our climate solutions series The Big Fix.
Marco Werman: What would you say are the factors that are driving this trend?
Raul Miranda: The short answer would be technology, the cost and momentum. Solar and wind have become the cheapest forms of new power in most parts of the world. And every new project makes the next one cheaper, creating an interesting cycle of growth.
With fossil fuels, [meanwhile], essentially you have a stable cost, or … actually even increasing cost, because the more you extract fossil fuels from the ground, the more expensive they become. So, you have different trends in terms of cost: one going down while the other tends to go up.
With fossil fuels, [meanwhile], essentially you have a stable cost, or … actually even increasing cost, because the more you extract fossil fuels from the ground, the more expensive they become. So, you have different trends in terms of cost: one going down while the other tends to go up.
Where is this shift to renewable energy happening the most dramatically and what parts of the world still rely heavily on fossil fuels for power?
Most of this growth has been observed in the most emerging economies. China and India [are the] main ones. We’ve seen in these two countries, solar is really outpacing fossil fuel, and particularly coal, generation.
But that’s not only a story for China and India. We’re seeing the same in Brazil. We see the same thing in Southeast Asia, Pakistan. So, there is really a global momentum and a global movement towards renewables.
But that’s not only a story for China and India. We’re seeing the same in Brazil. We see the same thing in Southeast Asia, Pakistan. So, there is really a global momentum and a global movement towards renewables.
Specifically in China and India, what’s happening in those countries that explains these changes?
China led global clean energy growth in the first semester of this year, so adding more solar and wind power than the rest of the world combined, [and] essentially cutting fossil fuel generation in that country. And fossil fuel use in China is sort of starting to achieve a plateau.
In India, the clean growth outpaced demand by more than three times, which means that the new renewable generation also outpaced the new increase in demand. By outpacing demand, renewables [are now] able to fill in the electricity generation that once was met by fossil fuels.
In India, the clean growth outpaced demand by more than three times, which means that the new renewable generation also outpaced the new increase in demand. By outpacing demand, renewables [are now] able to fill in the electricity generation that once was met by fossil fuels.
I’m curious with this embrace of renewables in China and India, are they also still burning coal but just at a reduced rate?
Yes, that’s correct. Even if you see in some countries … that they are still building new coal generation … they are essentially being used for fewer moments in the year, but not at a flat stable generation [rate] across the year.
What about the economic alarm bells that the renewable cynics have been warning about, that renewables cannot provide the same robust energy for industrial production that fossil fuels can? Have China and India proven them wrong?
Solar and renewables generally have proven that we do have all the technologies needed for essentially having a stable generation: so, things like storage, things like exchanging electricity across a continental grid and even having some response [to] demand [by] trying to tailor to that availability of electricity.
Countries like China, [they have managed to do this] better than some other countries. We see that [on] the Western side … development of grids, for instance, have been lagging a bit. So, what you see there is a long queue for connecting solar and wind facilities, which means that essentially … you have the investors there, you have the investor willing to connect, but they just can’t be connected to the grid. In China, perhaps that’s not the case.
Countries like China, [they have managed to do this] better than some other countries. We see that [on] the Western side … development of grids, for instance, have been lagging a bit. So, what you see there is a long queue for connecting solar and wind facilities, which means that essentially … you have the investors there, you have the investor willing to connect, but they just can’t be connected to the grid. In China, perhaps that’s not the case.
Some countries are slowing down, or even walking back, efforts to cut back on the carbon emissions that drive climate change. In fact, in both the US and Europe, fossil fuel use actually increased. So, do you think this recent rise in renewables will continue, or is it just a blip in the bigger story?
Yes, specifically in the US, solar and wind indeed couldn’t keep up with rising electricity demand in that country; essentially coal stepped up to fill in that gap. In the EU, we had last year and also this year weaker wind and hydro, which meant that gas and coal generation had to rise again, leading again to the slight increase in emissions.
So, we have different stories in these two countries and Europe. But generally, the storyline is the same. … We may still see these moments where fossil fuels may eventually still increase, but the overall global trend, it goes in the opposite direction. Actually, fossil fuels [are] going down.
So, we have different stories in these two countries and Europe. But generally, the storyline is the same. … We may still see these moments where fossil fuels may eventually still increase, but the overall global trend, it goes in the opposite direction. Actually, fossil fuels [are] going down.
What is the rise in electricity demand in the US about? Is it clear?
In our report, we haven’t tapped [on that] precisely, [but] we do see that in some parts of the globe, for example India, we did see an increase in electricity demand due to heat waves. Then you can also attach to that the industrial activity in that country.
And at the same time, when we are thinking about going towards 2030, 2035 and 2040, we should also add on to this puzzle electrification, right? We are essentially in a movement of electrifying our end uses. [We are] electrifying transport with electric vehicles. We are seeing an increase in data center demand. We are seeing an increase perhaps in some specific countries of heat pumps. There is also a trend of having some of these end uses being electrified in industries with low temperature heat supply. All of these, naturally, will increase electricity. So that’s, again, a general trend across countries. But they are also at different stages of this electrification. Electrification is moving forward, but it’s also uneven between countries.
And at the same time, when we are thinking about going towards 2030, 2035 and 2040, we should also add on to this puzzle electrification, right? We are essentially in a movement of electrifying our end uses. [We are] electrifying transport with electric vehicles. We are seeing an increase in data center demand. We are seeing an increase perhaps in some specific countries of heat pumps. There is also a trend of having some of these end uses being electrified in industries with low temperature heat supply. All of these, naturally, will increase electricity. So that’s, again, a general trend across countries. But they are also at different stages of this electrification. Electrification is moving forward, but it’s also uneven between countries.
This interview has been lightly edited and condensed for clarity.