The kingmaker of Kabul

KABUL — Afghanistan’s election kaleidoscope has been shifting with dizzying speed, keeping voters, politicians and observers constantly off-balance.

With less than two weeks to go before the vote, scheduled for Aug. 20, the capital is buzzing with the latest rumors and conspiracy theories.

The incumbent, President Hamed Karzai, is still favored to win. But an unexpectedly strong challenge from his former foreign minister, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah, could well rob him of his expected first-round victory.

British Ambassador Mark Sedwill fueled speculation with a statement in London this week, saying that the elections could well go to a second round. This was taken by gossip-hungry campaign watchers as a virtual endorsement of Abdullah.

If none of the 37 contenders receive more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be a runoff between the top two candidates.

No one is in any doubt as to who the frontrunners will be; a European Union official, speaking privately, said that the Independent Election Commission was already working on the ballot for Round Two, which, if necessary, will be held in early October. Printing and distributing close to 18 million ballot papers to Afghanistan’s remote regions is a complex and labor-intensive process, involving planes, trucks, cars and even donkeys.

But if Karzai and Abdullah are to go head-to-head in October, the decisive vote may well belong to the No. 3 candidate, Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai.

Ghani is the former finance minister who is credited with getting Afghanistan up and running following the collapse of the Taliban regime in 2001. He quit abruptly in 2004, in a dispute with the president over the pace of reform. Ghani has a doctorate in anthropology from Columbia University, has worked for the World Bank and was in the running for Secretary General of the United Nations when Kofi Annan retired in 2006.

But Ghani’s ego appears to be almost as large as his intellect. When asked what had happened to the promise of the early Karzai years, he said, directly and with no apparent irony, “I left.”

This lack of modesty has undoubtedly hampered his campaign, despite the assistance rendered by Democratic strategist James Carville, who spearheaded Bill Clinton’s successful bid for the U.S. presidency in 1992.

“Ghani does not have a political bone in his body,” said a former colleague, speaking privately.

No one really expects that Ghani could win the presidential race. But his loss could be a big gain for either Karzai or Abdullah: There are strong rumors that both camps are courting No. 3, hoping to draw his support, along with his reputation for probity and undeniable talents.

The most likely role for Ghani in a new administration would be as leader of a national executive council, a body reportedly designed in Washington to provide some much-needed direction to Afghanistan’s faltering government. The head of the body would be a “chief executive officer” — a shortcut to the type of prime ministerial structure that Abdullah, for one, has said that he wants.

But how would the notoriously prickly Ghani react to such a position? “It would be a violation of the Afghan Constitution,” he said. “This post has been offered to me in one guise or other for the past two years.”

Karzai’s campaign has indirectly confirmed that they are trying to get Ghani on board, according to The Independent, a British daily.

But Ghani has flatly rejected any position in a Karzai administration. In an earlier interview, at the start of his campaign, he poured scorn on his rival, and on the idea that a CEO would be able to help.

“I find it ironic that the head of one of the most incompetent administrations in our history is simultaneously discussing … having a babysitter,” Ghani told Global Post. “That means he’s a ward, a child who needs to be attended to, who is incapable of governing.”

Ghani bears no such obvious antipathy towards Abdullah; in a widely viewed televised debate two weeks ago, the men were cordial, seemingly careful not to step on each others’ toes. Their platforms are fairly similar, calling for good governance, an end to corruption and economic development.

Numerous reports from government insiders point to continuing negotiations between Ghani and Abdullah over joining forces. The No. 2 candidate may well need Ghani’s help if he is to even the overwhelming odds that Karzai’s position as incumbent has given him.

For the past year or more, according to numerous insiders, Karzai has been wheeling and dealing, promising ministerial posts, governorships and other perquisites to secure the support of local and tribal leaders.

In Afghanistan’s more remote regions, where tribal structures are still strong, the results are likely to depend a great deal on how local leaders instruct the populations under their control.

Worse still, in the nearly half of the country under significant threat from the Taliban, security is such that turnout could be as low as 10 percent. In Helmand, the southern province where major military operations are underway to clear out the insurgents, reports indicate that very few residents are willing to risk their lives for what they see as a flawed election.

International election experts acknowledge that the poll will not be perfect, but say that it is likely to be “fair enough” to pass muster.

This is not a view widely shared by Afghans, many of whom see the whole procedure as a sham. “This is just a symbolic process,” said Hajji Mohammad Zahir, head of the local council in Musa Qala, a town in Helmand that has changed hands between the British, the Afghan government and the Taliban several times in the past three years. “This election commission is a center for bluffing.”

In the far-flung villages, where election observers will not dare to go, the possibility of widespread fraud exists.

But Ghani, with his customary bravado, insisted that he would not allow Karzai to steal the elections.

“On the day the results are announced, if I don’t say they are legitimate, … the whole world can say they are legitimate, President Karzai can say they are legitimate, but the people of Afghanistan will not believe it,” he said.

Ghani warns that any attempt by Karzai to falsify the results could lead to serious and uncontrollable consequences.

“People are waiting for the election,” he said. “If the election were not there, this regime would face collapse. That is what people have been waiting for. For the first time in our history, we have the possibility for changing our ruler legally. If that mechanism of releasing pressure did not exist, the tensions of the society would explode.”