The ruble just crashed, but some Russians are kind of OK with it

GlobalPost

MOSCOW, Russia — The ruble suffered its worse devaluation in 16 years on Tuesday, losing more than 10 percent of its value in a matter of hours and prompting a top Central Bank official to liken its precipitous slide to a nightmare.

But for 65-year-old Valentina Ivanova, it wasn’t the end of the world.

“So long as there’s no nuclear war, the sun shines, and the water’s clean,” said the bundled pensioner as she waited outside a bank in the Tuesday evening drizzle, “we’ll survive.”

Whether because of patriotism or resilience, some Russians aren’t letting their currency’s dramatic collapse get them down quite yet.

Thanks to Tuesday’s slump, the ruble has lost more than 50 percent of its value since the beginning of the year, amid creeping inflation and plummeting oil prices.

But the Kremlin’s potent state media machine has proven successful in stirring up a sense of solidarity and defiance as Russia’s geopolitical standoff with the West grinds on.

While most analysts agree the economic turmoil is partly a result of Western sanctions against Moscow, prompted by President Vladimir Putin’s meddling in Ukraine, much of the population here still seems reluctant to blame the authorities.

State television’s dramatic downplaying of the crash has also probably played a key role.

Vladimir Pribylovsky, a political analyst, says the renewed sense of patriotism remains strong enough to weather the downturn. He said mass protests are unlikely.

“Crimea is ours — and that’s the main thing,” he said jokingly, echoing a phrase popularized after the Kremlin’s annexation of the Black Sea peninsula last March.

That also reflects a surge in anti-Western sentiment since the beginning of the crisis in Ukraine, which Putin has personally stoked by blaming the West for his country’s economic malaise. 

His line of reasoning plays well among older Russians such as Ivanova, who tend to see their country’s resurgence on the global stage as payback for unchecked American influence after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“If we wouldn’t have had any nuclear weapons, they would have dealt with us like they did with Serbia,” she said, referring to NATO’s 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia, a traditional Russian ally.

But in a country that’s no stranger to political and social turmoil, even a bit of resilience also goes a long way.

“How many crises have there been?” said 37-year-old Muscovite Vadim Ilyich, standing outside a currency exchange booth as he recalled the 1998 financial meltdown, prompted by the government’s default on its debt.

Maligning the rising cost of food and other imports, he nevertheless insists, “We’ll break through.”

But not everyone sees it that way, especially the mostly urban middle class that enjoyed a decade of prosperity under Putin as world oil prices surged. They’ll have far more to lose from the crash than Putin’s conservative blue-collar support base.

That’s why social media networks exploded on Tuesday with commentary — usually dark humor — from Russia’s chattering classes.

Critics have long accused the Kremlin of pursuing disastrous and unpredictable policies, aimed mostly at consolidating domestic support.

One of them was a sweeping ban on Western food imports last summer — so-called counter-sanctions that instead sent food prices here soaring and prompted fears of Moscow’s further global isolation.

Even those in the government who were scrambling on Tuesday to stem the ruble’s slide admitted the country faces a dire situation.

“We could not have imagined what is happening in our worst dreams,” said Sergei Shvetsov, deputy head of the Central Bank, the Interfax news agency reported.

But despite gloomy forecasts, there were few outward signs of panic in Moscow on Tuesday, even as exchange booths and banks buzzed with activity and the ruble appeared to settle at just under 70 against the dollar.

If investors seemed spooked, Ivanova — who said she’s helping her daughter purchase an apartment in Moscow — clearly isn’t.

“It’s just a psychological moment,” she said. “That’s all.”

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