Afghan Voter Turnout Hinges on Security

AMY HOLMES: Elections are Thursday in Afghanistan. How crucial is it that the Afghans turn out to vote?

Anthony Zinni: I think it’s critical that these elections go well. It would be a signal of increasing stability and the influence of the current government to control things. Should it go badly, I think it will set back considerably faith in the government, and faith in the stabilization operations that we’re conducting.

Amy Holmes: Now, there are literally dozens of candidates running against the current president, Hamid Karzai. But his main challenger is his own former foreign minister, Abdullah Abdullah. What would it mean for U.S. forces, and our fight against the Taliban, if Abdullah Abdullah became president?

Anthony Zinni: Well, I’ve met Abdullah Abdullah, and had some long conversations with him. He’s a very impressive individual. I think whichever way this goes, it wouldn’t affect our operations there, and how we do business. In many ways, I think either candidate is going to have basically the same approach, as it concerns us, and our involvement, and our cooperation with the government.

Amy Holmes: General Zinni, what do you think about reports of our forces meeting with so-called moderate Taliban leaders in order to try to quell the violence?

Anthony Zinni: I think it’s a good idea. You know, we saw in Iraq, when General Petraeus arrived, that he engaged the Sunni opposition that we faced, and was able to turn them around, the so-called Sunni Awakening. From my time out in this region and Pakistan and the area, there seems to be a consensus that there are some “reconcilable Taliban” ? that’s the term they use ? that all Taliban are not the same. Their motivations may be different. And the reasons that they oppose us vary, and are different. And so if there are incentives, and if there are agreements that can be reached that certainly lessen the number of enemy we face, I’m all for that. Going back to my time in Vietnam, we certainly had worked with the Vietcong who had defected, or were willing to defect, and had some programs of engaging them. And actually turning some of them around to working with our military forces.

Amy Holmes: General Zinni, it’s interesting that you bring up Vietnam, because a lot of people characterize that war as having become a quagmire. How will we know if we’re succeeding in Afghanistan? The buzzwords are metrics. How do we measure it?

Anthony Zinni: Yes. I think there are several ways, if you look at the objectives of the administration’s strategy. One, they want to internationalize this, meaning share the burden. We need to see more boots on the ground that are not just U.S., and willing to take on combat missions, outside just the Brits, the Canadians, and a few others. We need to see more regional cooperation. If we could begin to see the Pakistanis and Afghans, and even Indians, beginning to coordinate and work together. We’ll probably have to pull that together. I think the other metric’s going to be the number of Afghan security forces, military and police that we’re able to put out there, that are effective, and that are able to accompany our soldiers and marines on their operations. This last operation, with thousands of marines, we just had a few hundred Afghan security forces. Obviously, that’s got to change. And so, those are the kinds of things I’d look for. And on top of that, the ability of the Kabul government to reach out, be effective, and influence things outside the capital city.

Amy Holmes: So, General Zinni, how long do you think we have to see success?

Anthony Zinni: I think, you know, the longest pole in the tent is going to be the development of the Afghan security forces. And this is just my view, but I think it’s going to take three years to really have them in a position where they start standing up, and taking hard missions. And in the course of that three years …

Amy Holmes: But do you think President Obama has three years to show the American people success in Afghanistan?

Anthony Zinni: I think it’s critically important that he pay attention to American will, and the ability to stay with this. He needs to constantly assure the American people of why we’re there, what we’re doing, what the objectives are. We’re eight years away from 9/11, and I’m concerned that maybe we’ve lost focus about who perpetrated it, and their ability to repeat those kinds of attacks, if not here, elsewhere against our interests around the world, which they will do. That we have two powers out there that have nuclear weapons, and one is not so stable. And obviously we saw the atrocities the Taliban committed, not only on their own people, but places that they invaded, like the Swat valley, and those atrocities I don’t think the international community should tolerate.

Amy Holmes: Secretary Gates, he very visibly put General McChrystal in charge, and took out General McKiernan. How do you think this reflects on Secretary Gates’ leadership style?

Anthony Zinni: Well, obviously, he’s his own man. I mean, that’s the fourth general he’s seen out the door, if you think about it. And it means he’s in charge, he is decisive, he knows the strategy that he wants, and if those in uniform can’t implement that strategy, he’s going to take measures to ensure it happens. So, you want a secretary that’s decisive. You want a secretary that has a clear-minded strategy for what he wants to do. And he certainly has received the confidence of the military. And not just the military … I mean, Gates has said many things about the need to improve our other elements in agencies of government. To quote General Petraeus, we can’t shoot our way to victory in these kinds of missions. We need the state department, U.S.A.I.D., and others on the ground. That is going to be the greatest measure of success, not just how many security forces we train, or enemy we kill.

Amy Holmes: Well, General Anthony Zinni, I want to thank you so much for joining us and sharing your insights into the Afghanistan conflict, what we need to do to succeed there. Listeners, you’ve been listening to General Anthony Zinni. He’s a retired four-star general, and a former commander-in-chief of U.S. Central Command. He also served as President Bush’s envoy to the Middle East. He has a book out right now called Leading the Charge: Leadership Lessons from the Battlefield to the Boardroom.” Thank you so much.

Anthony Zinni: Thank you.